比特币ETF在三天内吸引超过10亿美元的资金流入，分析师重新提出“避险资产”的说法

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Bitcoin has edged closer to reviving its reputation as a geopolitical hedge after a wave of institutional inflows pushed the foremost cryptocurrency toward the mid-$70,000 range despite escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds have attracted roughly $1.1 billion in net inflows across three trading sessions from March 2 through March 4, according to data compiled by ETF trackers including Farside Investors and CoinGlass.

The latest surge follows weeks of outflows that had weighed on sentiment earlier this year.

On March 4 alone, spot bitcoin ETFs recorded about $461.9 million in net inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading the pack on $306.6 million, according to CoinGlass data.

The renewed demand from Wall Street has coincided with bitcoin’s latest price advance. Bitcoin briefly touched $74,000 during Wednesday’s rally and was trading above $73,000 on Thursday, according to The Block’s BTC price page, leaving it roughly 6% higher for the week.

Safe haven

For some analysts, the timing of the rally has been as important as the magnitude.

"Bitcoin has rallied past $71,000 as gold and oil have retreated from recent highs, but the headline number isn’t the most important signal," said Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau and a former Goldman Sachs quantitative analyst. "What’s more interesting is the return of large ETF inflows even as global equity markets remain volatile."

Puckrin said the flows could indicate that institutional allocators are beginning to treat bitcoin as a hedge during periods of geopolitical stress or rising inflation risk.

"These ETF flows suggest this isn’t just a short squeeze," he said. "They point to investors potentially viewing bitcoin as a geopolitical crisis hedge."

Market participants have long debated whether bitcoin behaves more like a risk asset similar to technology stocks or a store-of-value asset akin to gold. The latest price action has reopened that discussion as bitcoin has held up better than several traditional markets during the recent escalation between the U.S., Israel, and Iran.

Cross-asset movements over the past several sessions have added to that narrative. While equities and the U.S. dollar have fluctuated with geopolitical headlines, bitcoin has continued to trend higher.

Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, said the cryptocurrency’s resilience during the conflict stands out against the broader market backdrop.

"Bitcoin pushed higher even as volatility persisted in other risk assets," Rodda said. "Once upon a time, bitcoin tended to rally whenever geopolitical tensions escalated, particularly when sanctions or conflicts involving Iran were involved. That relationship appears to be reasserting itself."

Macro jitters

Still, macro uncertainty remains a powerful driver of sentiment across markets.

Analysts said geopolitical headlines around the Strait of Hormuz, global energy supply risks, and the prospect of new U.S. trade tariffs are creating a volatile backdrop for risk assets.

At the same time, a recent batch of U.S. economic data has offered a "Goldilocks" signal for investors, showing continued economic expansion while price pressures in some areas have begun to moderate.

Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, said markets have begun to stabilize after an initial wave of de-risking triggered by the conflict.

"Participants reached for the classic risk-on playbook," Brown said, pointing to volatility in equities and a softer dollar as evidence that sentiment had shifted after extreme bearish positioning earlier in the week.

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market’s rebound has also unfolded alongside shifting currency dynamics. The U.S. Dollar Index has struggled to maintain momentum despite geopolitical tension, suggesting that traditional safe-haven flows into the dollar may be losing strength.

Rania Gule, senior market analyst at XS.com, argued the dollar’s inability to sustain gains above key technical levels indicates that markets may be reassessing risk more calmly than earlier in the week.

In that environment, bitcoin’s performance has drawn particular attention, in Puckrin’s view.

"If the current divergence continues — with bitcoin holding firm while other assets fluctuate — it could strengthen the argument that the asset is regaining a safe-haven narrative," Puckrin said.

Whether that shift becomes durable may depend largely on whether ETF inflows continue in the days ahead, according to analyst notes reviewed by The Block. Glassnode said spot bitcoin ETF flows appear to be stabilizing after a period of sustained outflows. The analytics firm noted that the 14-day net flow trend has turned positive, suggesting selling pressure is easing as bitcoin moves back above the $70,000 level.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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