瑞·达利奥批评比特币：隐私风险、对控制权的担忧，以及量子计算带来的问题

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Ray Dalio cast fresh doubt on Bitcoin’s claim to safe-haven status on Tuesday, arguing that the asset still falls short of gold on privacy, institutional suitability and market structure. In a March 3 appearance on the All-In podcast, the billionaire hedge fund founder said those weaknesses help explain why Bitcoin has not behaved like gold during the current macro cycle.

Asked why Bitcoin has lagged while gold has surged, Dalio pointed first to surveillance and control. “Bitcoin does not have privacy. Any transactions can be monitored and then indirectly perhaps controlled,” he said. He then drew a line from that feature to state-level adoption. “Central banks are not going to want to buy bitcoin and be able to hold it. So, it’s not just individuals, it’s institutions and so on, but most, you know, and central banks.”

That matters because Dalio’s broader framework in the interview was built around debt stress, monetary debasement and the search for what he sees as politically neutral reserve assets. In that setup, gold remains the benchmark. He described it not as a speculative commodity, but as “the most established money” and “the second largest reserve currency that central banks hold,” arguing that its role is rooted in transferability, scarcity and the fact that it is not someone else’s liability.

Bitcoin, in Dalio’s telling, still looks different. Beyond privacy, he flagged technological uncertainty and the nature of its investor base. “There have been some questions or thoughts of the development of new technologies like quantum computing and so on. Can there be issues regarding that,” he said. “And then there’s who owns it and what are the other exposures that they have in their portfolio? It tends to have a pretty high correlation with the tech stocks.”

That last point goes to Dalio’s bigger criticism: Bitcoin may be treated as an alternative monetary asset in theory, but in practice it still trades like a risk asset. “If somebody gets squeezed in one thing, they sell something, whatever else they have,” he said, arguing that Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics are shaped by cross-portfolio stress in a way golds are not. He also called it “a relatively small market” and, for that reason, “a relatively controllable market.”

Bitcoin Community Reacts

The remarks quickly drew pushback from Bitcoin advocates on X, where the debate centered less on Dalio’s macro framing than on whether he was underestimating Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Investor Vijay Boyapati argued that Dalio “doesn’t fully understand why central banks own gold,” saying those holdings exist partly as protection against the possibility that gold competes with sovereign currencies.

“Once Bitcoin achieves the same scale as gold (it will over time based on its significant comparative advantages over gold) central banks will be forced to own it for the same reason they own golf. Without ownership their national currency becomes vulnerable to a speculative attack from Bitcoin,” he added.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan took a more market-oriented angle: “Some hear criticism; I hear opportunity. These are the reasons bitcoin is 4% of the size of gold. If these critiques did not exist, bitcoin would already be ~$750,000/coin. I invest in bitcoin in part because I am confident these things will change over time.”

Abra CEO Bill Barhydt argued that Bitcoin’s volatility and smaller float are features of a younger monetary asset, not proof of failure, while also disputing the severity of Dalio’s quantum concerns.
Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox, meanwhile, responded with a one-line jab: “I’m looking forward to Ray Dalio finding out about Zcash.”

At press time, BTC traded at $69,660.

source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:c97f89f31094b:0-ray-dalio-slams-bitcoin-privacy-risks-control-fears-and-the-quantum-question/