欧洲央行或将考虑因油价上涨而提高利率——市场观点

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0913 GMT - The European Central Bank could potentially lean toward raising interest rates after the surge in oil prices prompted by military action in the Middle East, Point72 economist Soeren Radde says. Inflation expectations would likely be sensitive to a renewed acceleration in prices given consumers' experience of the 2022 energy shock, he says in a note. In combination with a more accommodative fiscal backdrop, this could push the ECB to tighten rather than ease its stance. "In practice, the ECB will be wary of--again--mistaking a very persistent energy price shock for a transient shock that it can afford to 'look through' or even accommodate," Radde says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0911 GMT - Middle East tensions are adding fresh uncertainty to the U.S.-China trade outlook, Moody's Analytics analysts say. China is a major buyer of discounted Iranian crude, but holds sizeable reserves that could cushion short-term supply disruptions. Chinese officials have called for an immediate halt to military operations, with the Foreign Ministry noting, "The Strait of Hormuz and its surrounding waters are important international trade routes for goods and energy." Still, renewed friction with the U.S. clouds the upcoming U.S.-China summit in April and injects fresh uncertainty to their already fragile trade truce, Moody's says. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0907 GMT - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could overshadow the U.K.'s spring statement on Tuesday, Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. The spring statement is a twice-yearly report on the U.K.'s public finances which the treasury chief presents before lawmakers. Gilt yields rise, undoing some of last week's sharp falls, as conflict in the Middle East causes oil prices to jump. This raises a risk of higher global inflation which could limit central banks' scope for cutting interest rates. Ten-year gilt yields rise 3.3 basis points to last trade at 4.266%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0855 GMT - The biggest potential impact of the Middle East conflict would be the knock-on effects of a surge in oil prices and weaker risk appetite dampening global demand, Citi economists say in a note. They warn the conflict could deliver a double blow to Asia through both supply- and demand-side disruptions, given the region's heavy reliance on energy trade as a net oil importer. The Philippines and Thailand may face stronger consumer inflation pressures as a result, they add. Citi expects the People's Bank of China to step in to help keep the yuan relatively stable, while other regional central banks may shift to a more cautious, less dovish tone as inflation risks rise.(jason.chau@wsj.com)

0844 GMT - Emerging Asian markets' currencies might come under pressure as the military conflict in Iran escalates, Citi strategists say in a note. They identify the Philippine peso, New Taiwan dollar, Korean won, Indonesian rupiah and Indian rupee as the most sensitive to oil-price swings, while the offshore Chinese yuan appears the least exposed. "However, we believe policymakers will try to prevent knee-jerk weakness in their currencies," they add. Given that Asian central banks' policy moves last week leaned dovish, Citi expects rate adjustments to remain relatively muted in the near term. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

0840 GMT - Shares in European banks and insurers traded sharply lower at market open on Monday, as investors weighed the fallout from an escalation in the Middle East. Markets were rattled by the prospect of a surge in specialty war-risk claims, potential damage to regional energy infrastructure and disruptions to global supply chains. Following weekend strikes by U.S. and Israeli forces on Iran and subsequent retaliatory actions, the STOXX Europe 600 Insurance subindex fell around 2.5%, while the banking subindex dropped nearly 4%. Both sectors significantly underperformed the wider STOXX 600, which declined 1.9% as fears of heightened credit risk and an oil-driven inflationary shock weighed on sentiment. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

0828 GMT - Bitcoin recovers from earlier falls after President Trump and Israel launched military attacks on Iran at the weekend. Although risk aversion is negative for bitcoin, the crypto currency tends to benefit from concerns about inflation as conflict in the Middle East causes oil prices to jump, 21shares' Stephen Coltman says in a note. "It makes sense that we have subsequently seen bitcoin prices recover over the weekend given it too benefits from higher inflation expectations," he says. Bitcoin rises 0.4% to $65,948, having fallen overnight, LSEG data show. Ether edges down 0.1% to $1,926.80. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

0825 GMT - Singapore's central bank could tighten monetary policy sooner rather than later if oil prices persist at higher levels this year, OCBC economists say in a commentary. The Monetary Authority of Singapore expects imported costs to be contained in 2026, the economists note. However, the conflict in the Middle East threatens the benign global commodity price picture that underpins the central bank's expectations. This could spur a move to tighten monetary policy earlier, they say. The MAS uses currency as a policy tool as trade flows dwarf the island nation's local activity. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0819 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds rise due to concerns about inflation after the U.S. and Israel launched attacks against Iran. "The slight uptick in yields suggests a stronger focus on the inflationary implications of rising oil prices rather than a broad flight to safe-haven assets," Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. Ten-year gilt yields climb 2.7 basis points to last trade at 4.261%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0802 GMT - A low-base effect is likely to be the dominant driver of Indonesia elevated inflation in 1Q, following last year's temporary electricity tariff discounts, RHB economist Wong Xian Yong says in a note. While seasonal food pressures during Ramadan and persistent rupiah weakness may add to near-term price risks, full-year inflation is expected to remain within Bank Indonesia's 1.5%-3.5% target range, he says. Despite firmer headline inflation for February, moderating on-month price gains and contained core inflation should allow Bank Indonesia to keep its policy rate unchanged at the March meeting, he reckons. Further rate cuts are likely to depend on rupiah stability and the Fed's policy trajectory, he adds.(yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0801 GMT - BNP Paribas still expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in April despite geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran. "With inflation expectations already near 2% and the economy at full employment, a surge in resource prices could easily accelerate price pass-through," it says. "Under these conditions, the risk that inflation expectations for both households and firms could climb well above 2% cannot be ignored," its economists say in a note. Additional fiscal stimulus to cushion any shock may help the economy to avoid a sharp contraction, potentially allowing the underlying inflation trend higher over the medium term, they add. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0750 GMT - The Swiss franc rises to its highest level against the euro since the Swiss National Bank abandoned its peg for the exchange rate in 2015 as the Middle East conflict bolsters safe-haven assets. President Trump and Israel have launched attacks on Iran and Iran has responded with strikes across the Middle East. The franc is the ultimate safe-haven currency, Commerzbank's Thu Lan Nguyen says in a note. This partly reflects the erosion of other traditional safe-havens currencies, including the U.S. dollar due to erratic U.S. policies and the Japanese yen due to fiscal concerns, she says. The Swiss National Bank also has limited scope to weaken the franc, she says. The euro falls to a low of 0.9032 francs, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260302001706:0/