比特币期权交易者押注比特币价格将反弹至9万美元，分析师指出市场可能正在形成底部

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Bitcoin (BTC) options traders are building positions for a potential rebound toward $90,000, according to onchain derivatives platform Derive, pointing to early signals that the market may be attempting to form a base.

Recent derivatives positioning suggests traders are shifting away from aggressive downside hedging while maintaining defined protection, Derive Head of Research Dr. Sean Dawson commented in a note to The Block.

"The crypto market is beginning to show early signs of stabilization after weeks of uncertainty, with derivatives positioning suggesting traders are quietly preparing for a recovery while still maintaining meaningful downside protection," he said.

After a brief uptick at the start of February, bitcoin volatility has settled back into the 50% range — a level historically associated with consolidation rather than panic selling, Dawson noted. At the same time, the 25-delta skew, a key options sentiment gauge, has rebounded sharply from late-February lows, moving from roughly -15% to around -7%. The shift indicates traders are becoming less aggressively defensive and more balanced in their outlook, according to the analyst.

Options flows reinforce that cautious optimism, Dawson added. The March 27 bitcoin expiry, which currently holds the largest open interest in the market, shows significant call accumulation at the $80,000 and $90,000 strikes. Derive said this clustering suggests bullish traders are positioning for a recovery into the $85,000 to $95,000 range over the coming month as liquidity conditions stabilize.

However, downside protection remains firmly in place. Substantial put open interest is concentrated at the $60,000 and $55,000 strikes, indicating bears expect any drawdown to remain within a defined range rather than escalate into a capitulation event, Dawson said.

Bitcoin is currently trading for $66,029, according to The Block's BTC price page, down 3.2% over the past day.

Defensive hedging persists amid macro crosscurrents

Ethereum derivatives markets reflect a similar asymmetric setup. Derive highlighted a notable build-up of call exposure around the $3,500 strike, alongside strong put demand at the $1,800 level, underscoring continued hedging against macro risk and delayed capital inflows.

Data from Bybit and Block Scholes also demonstrate caution. After bitcoin briefly fell to $62,000 and rebounded toward the high-$68,000 area, one-week at-the-money implied volatility climbed to about 60%, leaving the front end of the volatility curve mildly inverted. Put skew has eased from extreme levels but remains tilted toward downside protection, while perpetual futures open interest continues to decline, signaling limited appetite for leveraged exposure, the firms said on Friday.

"The $70,000 psychological level has thwarted bitcoin bulls for much of this month, keeping the world's oldest and largest cryptocurrency on course for its fifth consecutive monthly decline," Han Tan, chief market analyst at Bybit, said. "Still, as crypto's fundamentals remain supportive, the current confidence crisis may ultimately create space for a strong bullish narrative to emerge. Flows could reverse once macro clarity improves, particularly around Federal Reserve policy or U.S. trade policy."

Supporting the idea that sentiment may be near a trough, recent research from Binance highlighted that options-market hedging has reached its most extreme level since the FTX collapse, despite the absence of a fundamental negative catalyst. Binance analysts also observed that crypto’s recent price behavior has closely tracked high-beta technology stocks — a dynamic driven by institutional exchange-traded fund ownership that treats bitcoin as a technology proxy rather than a pure monetary asset.

ETF flows show tentative re-engagement

Broader market sentiment has also softened. While U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for four consecutive months, they are currently on a three-day net inflow streak topping $1 billion, according to data compiled by The Block.

That includes $254.4 million worth of net inflows on Thursday, led by BlackRock's IBIT and Bitwise's BITB, with $275.8 million and $69 million in creations, respectively, offset by net outflows from other funds.

Meanwhile, Pepperstone Senior Research Strategist Michael Brown said participants remain attentive to geopolitical developments and renewed pressure in the technology sector, with U.S.-Iran talks and tech stock weakness weighing on risk appetite. Treasury yields dipped toward 4.01% on the 10-year before stabilizing, while crude benchmarks experienced intraday swings but ended largely unchanged.

"Taken together, the data points toward a market attempting to form a base," Derive's Dawson said. "Volatility compression, improving sentiment metrics and increasingly structured positioning suggest traders are transitioning away from defensive panic toward conditional optimism, preparing for upside participation while remaining protected against another leg lower."

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/the_block:a84315024094b:0-bitcoin-options-traders-bet-on-90k-rebound-as-analysts-flag-early-signs-of-market-base-forming/