比特币的抛售压力有所缓解，突破27%的可能性正在显现，但大型投资者另有打算

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Bitcoin
BTCUSD
price is sitting near $76,875 with sell pressure cooling and a breakout setup forming, but the largest whale wallets and the Smart Money Index both lean the other way.

The setup follows a 27% rally between March 29 and May 6 that paused inside a downward-sloping channel. Whether bulls reclaim the breakout zone now depends on whether retail calm can outlast steady distribution from larger participants.

Sell Pressure Cools as Breakout Setup Holds

Bitcoin formed a bull flag pattern after rallying over 27% between March 29 and May 6. The pattern is a brief downward-sloping channel that follows a sharp move higher and often signals continuation toward a breakout.

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The flag’s lower trendline is under direct pressure as BTC tests the support edge. Selling volume, however, has cooled noticeably since May 15, hinting that bears may be losing steam and the breakout setup remains intact.

Supporting that technical read, on-chain data from Binance Research shows tightening supply across four metrics. Nearly 60% of Bitcoin supply has not moved in over a year, while Bitcoin exchange balances have fallen to 15.0% from the COVID-era peak of 17.6%.

The short-term holder MVRV, a metric that compares the current value of recent buyers’ coins against what they paid, has moved back above 1.0. The reading suggests fresh entrants are possibly sitting on small unrealized profits for the first time since November 2024.

The flag’s lower edge therefore appears to have a structural cushion from supply tightening, keeping the breakout case alive. Whether the largest cohorts agree is a separate story.

Whales Trim Supply as Smart Money Index Bails

The volume drop tells only half the story. Two of Bitcoin’s largest cohort signals have moved in the opposite direction since February.

Wallets holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 BTC have steadily reduced their share of supply from 3.46% on February 20 to 3.31% as of May 18. The decline has been almost linear with no meaningful rebuilds, suggesting the largest Bitcoin whales are possibly distributing into the bounces for nearly three months.

Notably, no meaningful pickups happened while Bitcoin itself climbed to its early May peak, indicating big holders still view this phase as a weak one. That pattern undercuts the breakout narrative the cooling sell pressure has been building.

The Smart Money Index, a gauge that compares trading activity near the open against the close to track informed investor intent, has reinforced the caution. The index broke below its signal line on May 15, the first decisive breach since March 26.

An earlier dip in late April reclaimed quickly. The latest move looks steeper and has not been reclaimed, with Bitcoin sliding roughly 5% since that breakdown began.

Even with retail sell pressure cooling, the largest wallets and the smart money gauge both lean cautious. That sets up the price chart as the decider for whether the breakout still has a shot.

Bitcoin Price Levels That Decide the Breakout

The Bitcoin price now sits between two key technical levels. The zones are drawn from the swing low at $64,884 to the swing high at $82,830.

The 0.236 retracement at $78,595 caps any immediate upside. The 0.382 level at $75,975 is the first line of defense.

A daily close below $75,975 would push BTC into the 0.5 zone at $73,857. That level would erode the breakout case. A drop under the 0.618 mark at $71,739 would fully invalidate the pattern.

On the upside, the flag’s upper trendline support sits near $81,665. Reclaiming this and breaking above the swing high at $82,830 would confirm the breakout, re-extend the 27% rally, and likely draw fresh attention from the cohorts now distributing.

The pattern nuance worth flagging is that bull flags only confirm on a clean breakout above the upper boundary with rising volume. Until then, every test of the lower edge raises the odds of a clean breakdown rather than continuation. The $75,975 floor separates a flag continuation toward the $82,830 breakout from a measured slide toward $73,857 or lower.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/beincrypto:ee7b39998094b:0-bitcoin-sell-pressure-cools-with-27-breakout-in-sight-but-whales-have-other-plans/