“另类加密货币”的繁荣期似乎正在“悄然”开始？分析师发现了三个积极的信号

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Crypto market analysts say increasing altcoin performance and volumes on Binance, a rising altseason index and a strengthening TOTAL2 macro structure are early signs that the market could enter an altseason in 2026.

Key takeaways:

Altcoin recovery signals emerge, hinting at a potential altseason in 2026.
Rising altcoin trading volume on centralized exchanges and AltSeason Index point to possible capital rotation from Bitcoin.
Altcoin market cap chart shows improving technicals.
Altcoin market shows early signs of recovery

Crypto analyst Darkfost said that macroeconomic uncertainties surrounding the ongoing US and Israel-Iran war saw the altcoin sector correct by more than 50%.

However, the sector appears to be quietly “awakening” as the percentage of altcoins on Binance trading above their 200-day moving average (MA) increased to 21%, levels last seen in September 2025, suggesting that “investor interest in altcoins appears to be gradually returning,” Darkfost said in a Quicktake note on Wednesday, adding:

“This represents a crucial indicator for those looking to gain exposure.”

Performance of altcoins on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

Darkfost cautioned that it’s still too early to call for an altseason as the metric remains below the levels seen in mid-2025 and Q4 2024, when most altcoins traded between 60-80% above their 200-day MA.

Meanwhile, fellow analyst CryptoOnchain pointed to rising activity on centralized exchanges (CEX) as another sign of increasing momentum in altcoins.

According to the analyst, altcoin trading volume, excluding the five largest cryptocurrencies, has increased steadily over the past few weeks. The chart below shows the appearance of an Altcoin Volume Increasing Trend (yellow bars), which occurred when the 30-day MA for altcoin trading volume crossed above its 365-day MA.

Historically, when this metric flashes yellow, “it signals a clear rotation of capital from major caps into mid and low-cap altcoins,” the analyst said, adding:

“If this momentum is sustained, it could serve as a strong confirmation that a broader altcoin rally is underway.”

CEX volume ratio vs. Top 5 crypto. Source: CryptoQuant

Altcoin season "approaching"

The 90-day AltSeason Index also climbed to 28.6, its highest level in months. The index tracks whether a majority of altcoins outperform Bitcoin over the last 90 days.

“The altseason is starting quietly,” CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 said in a recent Quicktake note, referring to the “rapid rise” in the index over the last few weeks, adding:

“The real AltSeason is approaching.”
Altcoin season index. Source: CryptoQuant

Although the index has been recovering, its value of 28.6 means only 28.6% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have outperformed Bitcoin over the last 90 days. This falls short of the 75% "altseason" threshold, according to Blockchaincenter.

These include ZCash (ZEC), Bittensor (TAO) and Morphor (MORPHOR), which are up 98%, 72% and 68% over the last three months, compared to Bitcoin’s (BTC) 17% gains.

Top 50 Performance over the 90 days. Source: Blockchaincenter

CW8900 added:

“The indicator also shows that there was no real AltSeason in this cycle. The period when the AltSeason Index reached its highest point was early 2024, and even that value was relatively low compared to previous AltSeasons.”
Altcoins show signs of bottoming out

Data from TradingView showed TOTAL2 — the cumulative market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin — bouncing off the lower trend line of a multi-year broadening wedge that has defined its price action since mid-2022.

In a Wednesday post on X, analyst cryptocupra said TOTAL2’s breakout could mirror the 2021 breakout and rise as high as $8 trillion, adding that “altseason is inevitable.”

Altcoins market cap, TOTAL3. Source: X/1000xgirl

Nebraskangooner’s chart showed TOTAL2 breaking above the upper boundary of an ascending triangle on the daily time frame.

TOTAL2 is “breaking out from this bottoming pattern, the analyst said in a recent X post, adding:

“Altcoin market primed for more upside as long as this breakout holds.”

TOTAL2 daily chart. Source: X/Nebraskangooner

Fellow crypto analyst GorkemCrypto also shared a bullish argument with a 2021 fractal that projects Bitcoin dominance falling to 40% as capital rotates into altcoins.

Bitcoin dominance. Source: X/GorkemCrypto

However, as Cointelegraph reported, the Bitcoin Dominance Index has climbed to its highest level since November 2025. BTC dominance has been climbing since 2023, suggesting that the current trend still favors BTC over altcoins.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:06c680497094b:0-altcoin-season-quietly-starting-analysts-spot-three-bullish-indicators/