CLARITY 法案被认为是推动区块链技术成熟的关键一步——市场观察
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1142 ET - The passage of the CLARITY Act, which would define the classification and regulation of cryptocurrency in the U.S., is "critical" in shifting the market toward its next stages of maturation, says Abe Chernin and Robby Letson of Cornerstone Research. "Think about the internet in the '90s — people were buying crazy dotcom stocks," explains Chernin. "Then what happened, the technology underlying the internet was really valuable - we're kind of starting further down that path." They see the next stages for the market as essentially upgrading "the plumbing for the global financial system."The CLARITY Act is currently in the Senate, with the potential of passing next month. Bitcoin is down 0.2% to $78,311, while ethereum falls 2.3% to $2,339 and XRP is down 0.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1108 ET - The U.K. could face higher market turbulence than the U.S. and the eurozone due to its poor economic and inflation outlook, Validus Risk Management's Shane O'Neill says in a note. U.K. markets have recorded high volatility since the start of the Middle East conflict as investors quickly repriced Bank of England interest-rate expectations. Investors shifted from fully pricing in two quarter-point BOE rate cuts this year prior to the war, to fully pricing in two rate rises given inflation concerns. "The combination of geopolitical risk, energy-driven inflation shocks, and uncertain central bank responses creates an environment where markets can, and will, move quickly," O'Neill says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1049 ET - Higher inflation is expected to push up borrowing costs for U.K. inflation-linked bonds and overall borrowing expenses, Union Bancaire Privee's Peter Kinsella says in a note. Around 24% of the U.K.'s debt stock is inflation-linked and is vulnerable to rising inflation, Kinsella says. Data Wednesday showed U.K. annual consumer-price inflation rose to 3.3% in March as the Middle East conflict caused a jump in energy prices. The real yield on the September 2035 inflation-linked gilt last trades at 1.474%, having traded below 1.3% just prior to the start of the war in Iran, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1035 ET - How businesses react to a large surge in costs could be a key factor in whether Bank of England policymakers raise interest rates, BNY's Geoff Yu says in a note. Data Wednesday showed U.K. producer input prices surged 4.4% on-month in March as energy prices jumped due to the Middle East war. Producer output inflation--the increase in wholesale goods prices--was much more muted, however, at 0.9%. Such a large spread between input and output prices is "unsustainable for corporate profitability," Yu says. Rate hikes would be likely if companies opt to raise output prices as wage demands would likely strengthen. On the other hand, if they choose severe cost-cutting, this would lessen pressure for rate increases, he says. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)
1007 ET - Next week's could be Jerome Powell's last Fed meeting as the central bank's chair. But traders in interest-rate futures markets see little chance that a near-term change in the policy trajectory in on the way. Futures-market rate bets reflect just a 15% probability that the Fed will budge from its current 3.5% to 3.75% interest-rate setting before the end of September, and only a 30% chance that rates will rise or fall before the end of the year. Bets on any possible 2026 rate moves are now tilted toward a further cut, not a hike, although some analysts think that the Fed may offer more neutral, bi-directional guidance on its next step at the April meeting next week. ( matt.grossman@wsj.com ; @mattgrossman)
0957 ET - The euro-dollar exchange rate remains tied to oil prices in the near term amid the Iran war, HSBC analysts say in a note. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the greater the risk to global energy supplies and the more vulnerable the euro is against the dollar, they say. The Pentagon has told Congress it could take six months to fully clear mines in the strait, indicating it could take time before normal flow returns even if a peace deal is agreed. "If the eurozone economy continues to deteriorate, euro-dollar would face further headwinds," the analysts say. The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1690, having reached a 10-day low of $1.1679 earlier, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0955 ET - The dollar's petrodollar status, where oil is largely priced and invoiced in dollars, could be eroded over time as countries outside the U.S. attempt to reduce their reliance on the currency, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says. "I think one of the incentives in terms of denominating energy transactions in other currencies is to reduce the threat of [dollar] weaponization," he says. This is part of de-dollarization, or the global shift away from the dollar, that has been underway for years, he says. It makes sense for certain countries to agree swap lines to hold each other's currencies and then denominate transactions in non-dollar currencies, he says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0922 ET - Renewed U.S.-Canada trade tensions shouldn't affect the long-term outlook for the Canadian economy, says Derek Holt, economist at Bank of Nova Scotia. U.S. and Canadian officials have traded barbs and threats over trade, with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer threatening new retaliation over a ban on U.S. wines and spirits by some Canadian provinces. "Expect plenty of headline volatility but trade talks with the U.S. are a highly exaggerated shock to Canada," Holt contends, noting the bulk of Canadian exports are exempts from tariffs due to terms of USMCA. President Trump is unlikely to revoke that exemption due to the shock to integrated supply-chain networks, Holt adds. "There is a path to a deal." (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
0905 ET - Investment-grade credit looks appealing given the unpredictable macroeconomic environment caused by the Middle East war, Payden Rygel's Natalie Trevithick says in a note. After posting solid returns in 2025, the asset class is expected to remain resilient in 2026 despite the uncertainty, Trevithick says. Investment-grade credit "offers attractive income, relative stability, and diversification alongside equities and other asset classes", she says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0850 ET - Treasurys reverse some of the overnight selloff and yields slip, as geopolitical tensions keep markets uneasy and a U.S. indicator points to rising layoffs. In a fresh development, the U.S. says its forces boarded a sanctioned vessel in the Indian Ocean carrying oil from Iran. Stocks futures are down and dollar indexes edge higher. Oil futures hover around $100 a barrel. Weekly jobless claims rise to 214,000 from an upwardly revised 208,000, exceeding the 210,000 expected in a WSJ survey. The 10-year is at 4.302%, down from 4.325% earlier. The two-year is at 3.794%, down from 3.821%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0822 ET - The gap between yields on U.K. government bonds and those on their German peers widens as solid U.K. purchasing manager index data for April contrasts with weak German PMI. The U.K. composite PMI, which measures manufacturing and services activity, climbed more than forecast to 52.0 in April, from 50.3 in March. This easily surpassed the 50 level that indicates expansion. In contrast, German composite PMI fell more than forecast to 48.3 in April from 51.9 in March, signalling contraction. Following the data, investors raised U.K. interest-rate expectations and now price in two rate increases in 2026, LSEG data show. The two-year gilt-Bund yield spread widens to 182 basis points from 177bps before the data, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0803 ET - Bitcoin continues to ease as signs of ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran dampen demand for risk appetite. Renewed risk aversion encourages investors to take profits in bitcoin after it reached an 11-week high on Wednesday following President Trump's announcement of an extension to the cease-fire with Iran. Bitcoin's pullback is relatively modest, however, Trade Nation's Davis Morrison says in a note. "Overall, cryptos continue to behave well in the current circumstances and have experienced reduced volatility given the ongoing geopolitical upheaval." Bitcoin's daily moving average convergence divergence suggests moderate appreciation which could increase if it breaks and holds above $80,000, he says. Bitcoin falls 1.3% to $77,472 after reaching as high as $79,480 Wednesday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260423009175:0/