专家表示，比特币的下一个重大变动可能会与交易者们普遍的预期背道而驰

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Bitcoin Magazine Pro lead analyst Matt Crosby says traders relying on Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle may be leaning on a framework that no longer fits the market. In his latest analysis, Crosby argued that structural shifts in supply, institutional demand and macro liquidity now matter more than the old halving-driven playbook.

Bitcoin’s Old Cycle Playbook Is Breaking Down

Crosby’s core claim is straightforward: Bitcoin may already be trading in a different regime. Pointing to the fact that more than 20 million BTC are now in circulation, he said over 95% of the total eventual supply has already been issued, reducing the relative shock value of each new halving. Historically, halvings cut Bitcoin’s inflation rate in half and helped shape a familiar pattern of post-halving rallies, then drawdowns and recovery into the next cycle. Crosby said that pattern may now be losing force.

“Many people are looking towards the previous cycles as a potential for what Bitcoin will do this time,” he said. “We can’t bottom out anytime soon. We need to wait until at least a year has passed from that peak, because that’s what we’ve always done.” Crosby pushed back on that logic, adding that he has “concrete evidence” for why the old cycle should no longer be treated as the base case.

Much of that evidence, in his view, comes from demand. Crosby highlighted the scale of accumulation now coming from large treasury buyers and spot Bitcoin ETFs, saying Strategy alone has been acquiring more than 1,000 BTC per day, or roughly two to three times Bitcoin’s daily inflation rate. He also pointed to a recent day in which spot ETFs bought nearly $750 million worth of Bitcoin. That kind of persistent demand, he argued, is materially different from the market structure seen in earlier cycles.

Rather than anchoring on calendar-based cycle models or seasonality, Crosby said investors should watch liquidity and broader macro conditions. He cited a 96.26% long-term correlation between the S&P 500 and global M2 liquidity, along with a 93% correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P over 15 years on a monthly basis. Bitcoin itself, he said, shows an 85% correlation to global liquidity, reinforcing the idea that liquidity expansion and contraction remain the dominant force behind major moves.

Crosby also challenged the usefulness of election-cycle seasonality. While Bitcoin’s midterm years have sometimes posted strong average returns, he noted that median returns are negative and that the sample size remains thin. Gold and equities, by contrast, do not show the same kind of clean political-cycle pattern. For Crosby, that makes seasonality a weak foundation for market calls.

He also argued that Bitcoin looks different when measured against gold rather than the US dollar. On that basis, he said, Bitcoin may have topped in late 2024 and already spent more than a year in a relative bear phase, potentially bottoming around February 2026. That, he suggested, is another sign the classic four-year cycle has already begun to break down.

The more actionable signals, Crosby said, are coming from on-chain and macro indicators. He pointed to Coin Days Destroyed and Value Days Destroyed as tools that have historically flagged major tops and attractive accumulation zones, and said Bitcoin has recently re-entered an area that previously aligned with undervaluation. At the same time, he noted that US consumer sentiment in April 2026 fell to 47.6%, which he described as the lowest reading on record, while manufacturing expectations and liquidity conditions have started to improve.

“At some point, it’s inevitable this four-year cycle is going to break,” Crosby said. “We are seeing fresh liquidity entering the system. We are seeing the S&P 500 rally. We are seeing more positivity in manufacturing outlooks, and we are seeing incredible negativity, not just in Bitcoin, but in sentiment across equity markets as well.”

His conclusion was not that risk has disappeared. It was that the market may no longer reward waiting for an “arbitrary date on a calendar.” If Crosby is right, the next big Bitcoin move will be shaped less by inherited cycle lore and more by the harder forces of liquidity, positioning and sustained institutional demand.

At press time, BTC traded at $78,144.

source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:38f289adc094b:0-next-big-bitcoin-move-may-defy-everything-traders-expect-says-expert/