Grayscale Research 认为比特币已经触底，并观察到早期牛市的信号

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Grayscale has declared Bitcoin’s
BTCUSD
bear-market floor, arguing the asset bottomed in the $65,000 to $70,000 range. The call runs counter to a wider consensus that places the low later in 2026.

Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, said recent buyers have returned to breakeven after Bitcoin climbed more than 20% from its February 5 low near $63,000.

Grayscale’s On-Chain Case for a Bitcoin Bottom

Grayscale’s thesis rests on a metric called realized price, which averages a coin’s cost basis based on its most recent on-chain movement. It serves as a proxy for the market’s aggregate breakeven level.

For coins that changed hands over the past 1 to 3 months, Grayscale estimates the realized price at around $74,000. That level sits just below the current price level, leaving the newest cohort of buyers back at break-even.

“If Bitcoin’s price rises further in the coming days, more recent buyers would move into positive PnL, which can be an indicator for marking the first phase of a bull market,” Pandl noted.

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Bitcoin remains well beneath its October peak, but Grayscale contends the February rebound already carved out a durable floor. Further upside would push more recent buyers into positive territory. The firm views the rebound toward its cost-basis estimate as consistent with capitulation having already run its course.

“Bitcoin’s price is still well below its October highs, but many recent buyers are back to breakeven—potentially signaling that Bitcoin has put in a durable market bottom in the $65,000 to $70,000 range,” the analysis read.

Why Some Analysts Still See a Deeper Bitcoin Low

Not every researcher agrees that the worst has passed. Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and a former NASA researcher, told BeInCrypto his base case points to October 2026 for the cycle trough. An earlier bottom, he added, would require capitulation beyond historical mid-term norms.

“Bitcoin could bottom sooner, as early as May. But in order for that to happen, there would have to be some type of massive capitulation well below what we historically expect to see in midterm years,” he said.

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Joao Wedson, CEO of on-chain analytics firm Alphractal, lands in the same camp, expecting a low in late September or early October 2026.

CryptoQuant has identified a broader window from June to December 2026, with September through November as the most probable period. That range gives the bearish case more room than Grayscale’s near-term thesis allows.

The split leaves traders weighing two outcomes. Either the February capitulation marked the cycle low and recent buyers are now in the early stages of a new bull trend, or Bitcoin has another leg down before a durable recovery begins later in 2026.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/beincrypto:6cf31596e094b:0-grayscale-research-calls-bitcoin-bottom-sees-early-bull-market-signals/