比特币的价格何时会触底反弹？本杰明·考文的预测

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Bitcoin
BTCUSD
has demonstrated notable resilience amid the US-Iran war, climbing over 12% since February 28. As uncertainty grips global markets, one question continues to dominate investor sentiment: has Bitcoin already found its bottom, or is more downside still ahead?

In an interview with BeInCrypto, Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and former NASA researcher, weighed in on where the market may be headed next.

When Will Bitcoin Bottom?

Cowen explained that Bitcoin’s cycle timing has remained remarkably consistent. He noted that, measured against the two previous cycles, Bitcoin topped within one week of when those earlier cycles peaked.

Based on this pattern, Cowen expects the bottom to arrive roughly a year after the top.

“The base case has to just simply be that it’ll bottom when the other two cycles bottom, which is about a year after the top most likely scenario is October of 2026,” Cowen told BeInCrypto.

He acknowledged a scenario where Bitcoin could bottom as early as May. But for that to happen, there would need to be a massive capitulation event well below what historical midterm years typically produce.

As long as Bitcoin’s year-to-date returns remain within the standard deviation band of prior midterm years, Cowen sees no reason to pivot from the October thesis.

“And if you look at the year-to-date ROI of Bitcoin in 2026 and you compare it to the average of prior midterm years, you throw in a standard deviation on that average. As long as we’re within this band, it’s hard to assume that we’re going to exit the band, especially this early in the midterm year,” he explained.

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The outlook aligns with other market analysts’ views. Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, observed that Bitcoin’s cycle top occurred 534 days after the April 2024 halving, the shortest cycle peak compared to the previous one.

Based on this decaying pattern across cycles, his analysis suggests the market bottom could emerge roughly 912 to 922 days after the halving, pointing to a timeframe in late September or early October 2026.

Estimates from CryptoQuant broadly support this view, with models indicating a potential bottom between June and December 2026, and September through November as the most probable window.

Why This Cycle Topped on Apathy, Not Euphoria

One of Cowen’s key observations is that while Bitcoin’s peak in the current cycle aligns with previous timelines, it emerged under very different conditions.

He noted that in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin peaked amid widespread retail euphoria. This, in turn, triggered a rotation into altcoins after it topped.

This time, social interest in crypto has been trending down since 2021. Bitcoin topped on apathy, and as a result, the usual altcoin rotation did not materialize.

“This is a cycle where Bitcoin topped on apathy rather than euphoria, and the only other time it topped on apathy was actually back in 2019. When you top on apathy, you don’t get that same rotation,” he mentioned.

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Overall, Cowen maintained his view that the four-year cycle remains intact. Bitcoin is currently trading at $73,831, still more than 40% below its October 2025 all-time high near $126,000. If Cowen’s analysis holds, further downside may still be ahead before the cycle finds its floor.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/beincrypto:05a7bb1f4094b:0-when-will-bitcoin-price-bottom-out-benjamin-cowen-predicts/