伊朗战争揭示了比特币的第二个应用场景：为何需要重新评估价格目标

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Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan says Bitcoin’s
BTCUSD
rally since the Iran war began is not a fluke. It reflects a structural repricing of BTC as both digital gold and a currency.

The argument centers on a framework Hougan calls “two bets in one.” For five years, the market has priced Bitcoin almost exclusively as a store of value. Iran’s decision to collect crypto tolls at one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes suggests a second, far larger use case is now in play.

Bitcoin Isn’t Just Digital Gold Anymore, And the Price Targets Haven’t Caught Up

In a recent post this week, Hougan pointed to BTC’s strength amid the war. Bitcoin has rallied 12.25% since the US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran began on February 28.

The cryptocurrency has vastly outperformed gold (down 8.69%) and the S&P 500 (up just 1.29%), defying expectations that BTC would sell off as a risk asset during geopolitical turmoil.

“Some have argued that geopolitics is irrelevant for bitcoin, while others have pointed out that war often leads to money printing, which tends to boost bitcoin in the long term. Both arguments are wrong. Bitcoin’s strength during this crisis stems directly from the conflict itself,” he said.

Hougan argued that every Bitcoin buyer is making two simultaneous wagers. The first is the familiar digital gold thesis.

“You’re betting that bitcoin will become ‘digital gold’ and compete with physical gold in the $38 trillion ‘store of value’ market. That’s bitcoin’s current use case, and I consider it a very attractive bet. As I’ve explained here in the past, bitcoin can reach $1 million by capturing just 17% of this market over the next decade,” he added.

But the second bet is where things get interesting. It hinges on the possibility that Bitcoin “might act like a traditional currency.”

“I’ve historically thought of this second bet as an out-of-the-money call option: a speculative bet on an unlikely future,” Hougan remarked.

Until recently, that idea seemed remote. However, Hougan pointed to the 2022 decision by the US, the European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, the UK, and Canada to remove selected Russian banks from SWIFT.

In response, countries like China developed alternative financial systems, with Russia shifting nearly all its transactions to these networks.

“I mused at the time that the weaponization of SWIFT might one day open up space for bitcoin: If countries grew reluctant to deal in dollars, it stood to reason that they might prefer an apolitical alternative at some point. And indeed, during the Iran conflict, we saw one of the earliest (and more uncomfortable) examples of this happening,” Hougan explained.

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Iran’s Bitcoin Toll Activated the Currency Thesis

BeInCrypto reported that Iran planned to collect a $1-per-barrel toll on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, payable in Bitcoin. The move raises sanctions compliance concerns. However, according to Hougan,

“At the same time, it points to a reality that transcends the current conflict: In a world where countries have weaponized their financial rails, bitcoin is emerging as an apolitical alternative.”

Hougan framed BTC’s potential as a currency through options pricing theory. An out-of-the-money call option gains value when two things happen: the probability of hitting the strike price improves, or volatility in the underlying market increases.

The Iran conflict delivered both. The probability of Bitcoin functioning as a currency jumped with Iran’s toll system. In addition, the volatility of the global monetary order spiked.

Hougan argued that this perspective highlights two key implications for Bitcoin’s trajectory. For one, it suggests the asset could gain during periods of geopolitical tension, especially in regions caught between the US and Chinese spheres. It also indicates that Bitcoin’s potential market extends well beyond gold’s $38 trillion valuation.

“We’ve spent the past five years talking about bitcoin exclusively as a ‘store of value.’ If bitcoin starts to take on a dual role as both a store of value (like gold) and an actual currency (like the dollar), we may need to revise our targets higher,” Hougan stated.

Thus, the five-year “store of value” narrative served Bitcoin well. What comes next could dwarf it.

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source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/beincrypto:b6ffd8f93094b:0-the-iran-war-revealed-bitcoin-s-second-use-case-why-price-targets-need-revising/