为什么每次比特币宏观趋势图出现突破时，都会出现回调阶段？

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Across multiple market cycles, Bitcoin has shown a consistent technical pattern that often goes unnoticed until it’s already underway. Whenever price breaks down from a macro triangle structure, it has historically marked the beginning of a broader retracement phase rather than an immediate recovery. These large-scale consolidation formations often signal periods of compression, where price action tightens as the market prepares for a decisive move.

How Large-Scale Consolidation Patterns Form On The Bitcoin chart

The Bitcoin behavior is following a macro triangle breakdown that has remained structurally consistent across cycles. An analyst known as Rekt Capital on X mentioned that when BTC breaks down from its black macro triangle, price tends to retrace until it forms a bear market bottom over time.

In cycles like 2018 and 2022, the macro triangle breakdown triggered rapid bearish acceleration before transitioning into a final accumulation range at the bottom. However, the current market structure echoes the 2014 macro triangle, where price was consolidating beneath the orange macro triangle base. If BTC continues to mirror 2014, it may remain in consolidation for an extended period, with the previous triangle base at around $82,500 acting as a ceiling for price action.

Rekt Capital highlighted that BTC tends to form orange boxes as major consolidation zones after breaking down from macro triangles. In 2018 and 2022, these consolidation phases developed at the bear market bottom. Meanwhile, in 2014, BTC formed two distinct consolidation ranges, one immediately after the macro triangle breakdown and another later at the ultimate bear market bottom.

If that historical structure repeats, the current consolidation may not mark the end of the downtrend. Instead, it could be an intermediate phase, potentially preceding additional macro downside over time, with a more definitive consolidation range forming closer to the eventual bear market bottom.

Trading Below HTF EMAs Confirms Bitcoin Trend Direction

Bitcoin’s current structure continues to support a strongly bearish bias. According to a crypto trader known as ctm_trader on X, a high-timeframe bearish head-and-shoulders pattern is forming, and the price is rejecting at the range highs, an area where risk-to-reward clearly favors short positions.

At the same time, the majority of liquidity is sitting below the current price, while much of the upside liquidity has already been swept. The recent daily close printed a bearish doji candle. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in overbought territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows bearish momentum shifts.

From a technical perspective, the price is trading below the high-timeframe Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), showing that the broader trend remains bearish despite recent upward moves. On lower timeframes, BTC has already experienced a market structure shift, followed by a breakdown below recent lows.

Furthermore, the latest rally was largely driven by news and not supported by organic price action. Historically, such impulsive moves tend to retrace. All of these combined make the downside the higher probability moves.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:5ea6dbe3b094b:0-why-every-bitcoin-macro-triangle-breakdown-has-led-to-a-retracement-phase/