投资人为何不应过度担忧伊朗冲突？

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Thus far in 2026, investors have had to contend with a flurry of uncertainty, geopolitical headlines, and erratic price action. Currently, the main thing investors are paying attention to and weighing is the conflict between the United States and Iran. While the two sides met over the weekend, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said that the U.S. and Iran were unable to come to an agreement, mainly due to a disagreement about whether or not Iran should have nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, after four consecutive down weeks, the Nasdaq and other major U.S. market indices have staged impressive rallies and are working on their third consecutive weekly gain. For now, the question investors are asking is, “Is the current move merely a countertrend rally or does it have legs?”

Betting Markets Suggest End to Iran War is on the Horizon

Betting markets such as Kalshi and PolyMarket have proven to be an invaluable tool recently. Unlike headlines that can be conflicting or misleading, betting markets are backed by real financial wagers, cutting through the noise and giving investors a clear picture of the odds of a given outcome. According to the latest data from PolyMarket, bettors overwhelmingly believe that the U.S./Iran war will end by the end of the month. Currently, the odds that the War ends by May are at 73%.

Image Source: PolyMarket

Oil is Losing Momentum

A key concern among investors is that an oil shock will lead to sustained inflation or even a “stagflation” period akin to the 1970s. However, despite the fact that the Strait of Hormuz is not at full capacity and negotiations between Iran and the U.S. fell through, the United States Oil Fund (USO) rose less than 3%. Additionally, USO is making lower lows in the short-term, a potential sign that oil may finally be losing momentum.

Market Momentum Begets More Momentum

The S&P 500 Index just recorded rare strength, rising for 7 consecutive days and more than 7%. Historically, this rare momentum leads to even more momentum. In past occurrences, the S&P 500 Index is up 85.7% of the time 6 months later for an above-average gain of 14.4%.

Image Source: Carson Investment Research @RyanDetrick

Bitcoin is a Leading Indicator

Bitcoin has been a reliable risk-on, leading indicator for equities. For example, Bitcoin topped in October, well before the Nasdaq did in January. Now, Bitcoin is breaking out from a multi-month downtrend line, suggesting investors may be ready to put risk on again.

The AI Infrastructure Snowballing Effect

According to Synergy Research, neocloud revenues are scaling fast, with the market expected to approach $400B by 2031 (with an expected 58% CAGR). With AI demand outpacing traditional hyperscaler capacity, GPU-first cloud providers like CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius (NBIS) are filling the gap.

Image Source: Synergy Research Group

Meanwhile, the AI boom is proliferating into “pick and shovel” plays like energy. By 2030, data center power demand is expected to grow at 220% (according to Goldman Sachs). On-site, behind-the-meter energy companies will benefit. Monday, Bloom Energy (BE) announced a $21 billion energy deal with Oracle (ORCL).

2026 IPO Anticipation

Several of the largest, most highly anticipated IPOs are slated for 2026, including SpaceX ($2 trillion), OpenAI ($852 billion), Anthropic ($500 billion), and Databricks ($134 billion). The anticipation of these IPOs may lead to a melt-up in price before a classic “sell the news” phenomenon.

Sentiment & Seasonality

Despite the rip-roaring market rally recently, many investors are skeptical, according to sentiment indicators like the CNN Fear & Greed Index, which currently has a “Fear” reading. As stocks continue to rally, bears may be forced to cover shorts, adding further fuel to the rally.

Image Source: CNN

Meanwhile, historical seasonality data suggests that the second half of April tends to favor the bulls.

Image Source: StockTradersAlmanac.com

Bottom Line

As we move into the second half of April, a period historically favored by bulls, the convergence of technical momentum, cooling oil prices, and contrarian “Fear” readings suggests the path of least resistance remains higher.

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Oracle Corporation (ORCL): Free Stock Analysis Report

United States Oil ETF (USO): ETF Research Reports

Bloom Energy Corporation (BE): Free Stock Analysis Report

Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS): Free Stock Analysis Report

CoreWeave Inc. (CRWV): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:c2b08d671094b:0-bet-on-peace-why-investors-should-fade-iran-conflict-fears/