比特币正在获得发展势头。如何把握反弹机会。— Barrons.com
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By Doug Busch
Bitcoin has struggled to act like a true "risk-on" asset. In market environments, especially during times of uncertainty, it has failed to behave consistently.
Now that perception is starting to change.
As markets have matured and more institutional money has entered the space, Bitcoin has ever so slowly started to show stronger behavior in line with risk-on assets again. With deeper liquidity and growing adoption, it now looks better positioned to reclaim its role as a high-beta market asset that tends to move more aggressively with broader investor risk appetite.
Let us now analyze the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF on a few different time frames to support our bullish thesis.
Looking at the daily chart one can see how depressed it is being 42% off its peak made on Oct. 6, the middle session of a bearish evening star pattern. Notice it was also a triple top near the round $70 number with bearish island reversals on July 15 and Aug. 14. Notice it has been acting better than its crypto cousin Ethereum on the ratio chart against the Grayscale Ethereum Stalking ETF since last summer. Admire how the IBIT reclaimed both its 50-day simple moving average and 21-day exponential moving average last week. A bullish ascending triangle pattern has taken shape.
Mondays pullback offers a good risk/reward entry point right here. A break above $42, should be added to, and could lead to a quick move toward $50 by mid-2026, representing a 20% gain from current prices. Remain bullish above $39.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF was trading around $40.75 Monday.
Looking at its weekly chart dating back to its inception in early January 2024 shows how the candles were influential in determining near-term highs and lows.
The week ending Oct. 10 recorded a bearish dark cloud cover candle at its "all-time" highs, and by the end of February price had chopped the instrument in half. A weekly double bottom base could be taking shape and bulls would have been confident that selling pressure was abating with the appearance of a couple of spinning tops and a doji candle. As of last week's close, it was back above a prior weekly double bottom breakout above a $39.85 trigger taken out the week ending Nov. 8, 2024 that rose 11% in firm volume. Notice the weekly ratio chart against the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, and may be ready to reclaim that risk-on asset that the precious metal seems to have stolen from it with a break above a short downtrend.
Examining the monthly chart shows March ending a five-month losing streak with a bullish inverted hammer candle. That was only the fund's second time recording consecutive declining months. The losing streak began with a spinning top candle, which is adept at signaling potential trend changes. Notice the odd start to the ETFs' public trading with a doji candle in January 2024. In the near term if this can get above the 50 month SMA near $45 a move toward all time highs in late 2026-early 2027 is plausible.
Taken together, these signals suggest Bitcoin may be forming a durable bottom, where downside pressure fades and longer-term buyers gradually regain control of the market narrative.
Doug Busch is the senior technical analyst at Barron's Investor Circle . His technical view is added to stock picks, including those published exclusively for Investor Circle readers. A glossary of technical terms is updated regularly with new entries.
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260413005973:0/