比特币跌破66,000美元，大量看跌头寸暗示在复活节假期前可能存在上涨风险：分析师表示

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Bitcoin (BTC) has held in a tight range below $70,000, with analysts pointing to a market still searching for conviction as onchain positioning quietly shifts heading into the Easter period.

According to The Block’s BTC price page, bitcoin is currently trading for around $65,973, down 3.7% over the past 24 hours, having oscillated between $60,000 and $70,000 in recent weeks, while ether (ETH) has been pinned near $2,000.

Onchain picture

Spot demand is beginning to absorb selling pressure but not yet strong enough to drive a sustained move higher, Glassnode wrote in a weekly market review. The analysts said the current setup reflects a market in transition.

A large share of supply remains underwater, with an estimated 8 million to 9 million BTC held above current prices. The current market scene has created a persistent overhead barrier that continues to cap rallies, according to the analysts.

At the same time, long-term holders have been realizing losses at elevated levels, suggesting the redistribution phase is still playing out.

Derivatives markets tell a more nuanced story. Funding rates stayed negative for most of the first quarter and remain below zero. In other words, traders are paying a premium to hold short positions even as prices stabilize.

Analysts at Bitfinex said that the imbalance could become self-reinforcing.

"Traders are willing to pay a premium to maintain downside exposure," the firm noted. The Bitfinex analysts added that the extended short bias could trigger a squeeze if upward momentum materializes.

Flows and options

Bitcoin is caught between stabilizing spot flows and cautious leverage.

Exchange-traded funds recorded a late-quarter rebound, with two consecutive days of net inflows at the end of March, though flows appeared to be driven in part by rebalancing rather than renewed conviction.

More recent data shows U.S.-based bitcoin funds have resumed outflows, including $174 million pulled on April 1.

Demand in options markets has also retreated as implied volatility compressed and skew tilted modestly toward downside protection. That’s usually a sign that investors are hedging risk rather than positioning for a breakout.

Macro impact

The broader macro backdrop has added another layer of restraint.

Analysts at Bitunix said markets have entered what they described as a "supply chain destruction" phase, as disruptions to both energy and industrial metals production begin feeding through to inflation.

Against that backdrop, bitcoin has continued to act as what one analyst described as a residual risk barometer, with liquidity clustered between $69,000 and $70,100 on the upside and around $65,500 as a key downside test level.

Recent coverage has highlighted a similar tone across markets. Traders have entered the typically quieter Easter period with what K33 called "aggressive caution," while bitcoin has already posted its worst first quarter since 2018.

A longer-term lens offers a different read. In a recent podcast interview, Pantera Capital founder Dan Morehead said bitcoin could take another six to eight months to bottom. He also argued the asset has already reached "escape velocity," with institutional participation still near zero. In this view, this leaves the next leg driven by broader adoption rather than short-term flows.

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