这20%的以太坊价格风险或许可以解释为什么机构投资者更倾向于选择比特币

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Ethereum
ETHUSD
price traded above $2,100 on April 1 with a head-and-shoulders pattern on the 12-hour chart threatening a near 20% breakdown to $1,570, a structural risk that may explain why institutions continue to favor Bitcoin over ETH.

Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted $1.32 billion in March while Ethereum ETF products extended their outflow streak to five months. The Ethereum price gained 7% over the past 30 days compared to Bitcoin’s 2.7%, yet regulated capital moved in the opposite direction. The technical structure and collapsing on-chain demand suggest institutions see something the short-term rally does not.

Institutions Keep Choosing Bitcoin Over Ethereum

Ethereum ETF products recorded $46.01 million in net outflows for March, according to SoSoValue. While that figure represents a sharp improvement from February’s -$369.87 million and January’s -$353.20 million, it still marks the fifth straight month of institutional capital leaving ETH-focused products since November 2025.

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The contrast with Bitcoin is stark. BTC spot ETFs pulled in $1.32 billion during the same month, breaking their own four-month outflow streak. Institutions had the same macro backdrop, the same geopolitical risks, and the same quarter-end rebalancing window. They chose to buy Bitcoin and sell Ethereum.

The inability of Ethereum ETFs to flip positive, even in a month where the Ethereum price rose 7%, suggests that the bounce has not convinced regulated capital. Institutions appear to be pricing in structural risk that short-term price action alone does not reflect.

That skepticism becomes clearer when on-chain holder behavior aligns with the same direction.

Demand Collapsed 80% in 10 Days

The hodler net position change, a Glassnode metric tracking the 30-day rolling change in ETH held by addresses with a holding period of 155 days or more, peaked at 543,169 ETH on March 21. By March 31, that figure had dropped to 109,678 ETH, a collapse of approximately 80%.

This means mid-to-long-term holders who were actively accumulating through mid-March began slowing their purchases dramatically in the final 10 days of the month. The timing aligns with the period when Ethereum ETF outflows accelerated and the broader crypto market faced geopolitical selling pressure from the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

When ETF flows and on-chain holder behavior both weaken simultaneously, the demand base narrows from two sides. Institutional capital exits through regulated products while long-term spot holders reduce accumulation. The result is a thinner floor beneath the Ethereum price. And that too at a time when the technical structure carries significant breakdown risk.

That risk is now visible on the 12-hour chart.

Ethereum Price Warning Builds With a 20% Breakdown Target

The 12-hour Ethereum price chart shows a head-and-shoulders pattern forming since late February. The head peaked at $2,380. The right shoulder is still developing, with price currently sitting at $2,100.

The pattern carries a measured move of approximately 19.32% from the neckline (almost 20% risk), placing the breakdown target near $1,570. However, a neckline break has not occurred yet. The right shoulder continues to build as long as the Ethereum price stays below $2,384. A move above $2,200 would invalidate the left shoulder’s proportionality but only a sustained push above $2,380 would kill the pattern entirely.

The 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), trend indicators, on the 12-hour chart sit at $2,070 and $2,080 respectively. These two levels act as the immediate floor. The last time both EMAs broke together, starting March 26, the Ethereum price corrected 8.44%. A repeat break under $2,070 would accelerate the right shoulder’s downward leg toward $2,010 and then $1,950, which aligns with the neckline zone.

If $1,950 breaks, the 0.618 level at $1,840 offers intermediate support. The full measured move target sits at $1,570, with $1,400 as the extension if selling momentum intensifies.

A 12-hour close above $2,120 could delay the breakdown. However, only a return of Ethereum ETF inflows and hodler accumulation would provide the demand needed to push above $2,380 and invalidate the pattern.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/beincrypto:13f3dce63094b:0-this-20-ethereum-price-risk-may-explain-why-institutions-keep-choosing-bitcoin/