中东地区长期冲突可能威胁全球化肥供应链——市场观察

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0807 GMT - The prolonged Middle East conflict puts global fertilizer flows at risk, ANZ strategists say in a research note. The Middle East accounts for around 30% of global fertilizer trade and is a crucial hub for gas exports, the strategists say, adding that shipment disruptions from the region have started impacting fertilizer availability. The energy shock is also impacting fertilizer production costs, as nitrogen fertilizers are gas-intensive products, they say. Fertilizer-exporting countries, such as China and Russia, are imposing trade restrictions to secure domestic availability, further tightening global flow, they note. "These disruptions will impact global food production, raising concerns about increasing agricultural costs and yield losses," they add. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

0802 GMT - The euro could rise if oil prices slump but markets remainreluctant to price out interest-rate rises for the European Central Bank, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. "A scenario where markets find it much easier to reprice the dollar swap curve lower relative to the euro one in an oil selloff significantly raises the upside potential for the euro versus the dollar." That would also boost the euro against currencies where rate expectations are more vulnerable to being repriced lower, including the Swedish krona and sterling, or against those which are more exposed to lower oil prices, including the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone, he says. The euro rises 0.3% to a one-week high of $1.1594, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0800 GMT - Market sentiment is on the mend as optimism rises over a potentially near-term end to the Middle East war. However, First Abu Dhabi Bank's analysts warn that U.S. President Trump's communication advocates caution. "Trump's narrative remains as vague and incoherent as ever, leaving myriad questions as to what will be left behind," the analysts say in a note. Trump may now be suggesting that the U.S. could end its military operation in Iran within two or three weeks, "but his rhetoric lacks any consistency or credibility," the analysts say. First Abu Dhabi Bank analysts therefore advocate a cautious approach to risk positioning, with a clear focus on liquidity and credit fundamentals. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0756 GMT - The Chinese yuan is likely to stay relatively resilient as Middle East tensions keep pressure on currencies in Asia, HSBC analysts say in a research note. Most Asian currencies weakened in March amid broad U.S. dollar strength, they say. The yuan's internationalization is a key theme supporting the currency, HSBC says. China's economic rebalancing, including industrial upgrading, a technological self-reliance push, as well as greater emphasis on domestic demand, also supports the yuan amid external volatility, HSBC says. The yuan is last at 6.87 against the dollar. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0752 GMT - Ten-year Treasury yields have limited scope to fall due to concerns over elevated debt levels and the potential for rate hikes, Nuveen's Laura Cooper says in a note. "Fiscal pressures, elevated debt levels, and the gap between market-implied rate paths and likely policy outcomes can keep 10-year Treasuries [yields] from rallying below 4% through year-end barring an outsized growth shock," she says. However, potential headwinds to growth and softer jobs data will cap any rise in yields. Bond investors are buying on dips, taking advantage when yields rise, but Cooper warns that risks to long-dated bonds remain. The 10-year Treasury yield falls 5 basis points to a two-week low of 4.259%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0744 GMT - The Bank of Japan's tankan survey suggests that Japanese companies might not be too concerned about the impact of geopolitical risks, considering that the questionnaires were sent out on Feb. 26. The responses are believed to have factored in the impact of the Middle East conflict to some extent, Goldman Sachs economist Yuriko Tanaka says. "The results confirmed that even amid escalating Middle East tensions and rising crude oil prices, the corporate sector shows no signs of a downturn, and that economic conditions are developing in line with the BOJ's outlook for a gradual recovery," she says. However, the impact of the escalation of disruptions in the Middle East in late March may not be fully reflected in the tankan, she adds. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0730 GMT - Yields on U.K. 10-year government bonds fall to a 2-week low as market sentiment improves on the prospect of an end to the Middle East war. President Trump's comments that the war would end in two to three weeks have contributed to the positive sentiment, RBC Capital Markets strategists say in a note. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also said Tehran is ready to end the conflict, subject to certain guarantees. Ten-year gilt yields are down 12 basis points to last trade at 4.802% after hitting a two-week low of 4.776% in opening trade, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0720 GMT - The latest Bank of Japan tankan survey indicates the current business sentiment remains solid and that domestic supply-demand conditions are tightening, SMBC Nikko Securities economists say. "These results are seen as supportive of a BOJ decision to raise interest rates to 1% at the April 27-28 policy meeting," they say. "However, due to heightened uncertainty about the Middle East situation, the outlook for business conditions is expected to deteriorate, making the timing of subsequent rate hikes difficult to predict," they add. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0711 GMT - Bitcoin market sentiment appears cautious as seasonal tailwinds fail to materialize, BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas says. Bitcoin is trading around $68,000 on Wednesday, below the $70,000-$72,000 range needed to build stronger market conviction, Lucas says. Although April is historically the asset's strongest month, market movements have diverged from seasonal trends this year. Lucas notes investors' muted response to recent equity volatility suggests markets are taking a wait-and-see approach rather than positioning for gains. On the downside, traders are watching $65,000 as near-term support, with further weakness potentially pushing prices toward $56,800. On the upside, a break above $79,000 would be more significant and signal a renewed bullish trend. Bitcoin is last up 1.2% at $68,981.84. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

0707 GMT - Bitcoin rises as optimism over a potential end to the Iran war improves appetite for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. President Trump said U.S. military action in Iran could end in two to three weeks while his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran has the "necessary will to end the war" if certain conditions are met. While the prospect of the war being over is welcome, "rhetoric is easy to come by but foreign policy harder to execute," Hargreaves Lansdown chief investment strategist Emma Wall says in a note. Bitcoin rises 1.3% to a near one-week high of $69,168, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0706 GMT - The tankan survey readings are supportive of a Bank of Japan interest-rate hike, says S&P Global Market Intelligence economist Harumi Taguchi. Corporate price outlooks have generally risen compared with the previous survey. "This suggests that the ongoing yen weakness, combined with the recent surge in crude oil prices, may be influencing companies' medium- to long-term inflation expectations," Taguchi says. "Conditions for a rate hike are gradually falling into place," judging from recent data including the solid revisions to the bank's supply-demand gap data, the economist says. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0702 GMT - Gold prices extend gains, climbing back above $4,700 a troy ounce after President Trump said the U.S. will be leaving Iran in two to three weeks. In early trading, New York futures rise 1.6% to $4,752.70 an ounce and are on track for a weekly gain of more than 4%. "The move suggests that bullion is beginning to rebuild momentum, although gains remain measured and still closely tied to currency and oil dynamics," Sucden Financial analysts say. "The outlook remains constructive in the near term, supported by the softer dollar." The U.S. dollar index--which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies--is down 0.4% to 99.56. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260401001641:0/