“不再是实验了”：谷歌最新量子技术突破引发关于比特币长期安全性的新一轮讨论
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The latest research from Google is reigniting debate across the cryptocurrency industry about whether quantum computing could one day threaten Bitcoin and other blockchain networks, and how soon developers need to act.
The paper, published by Google Quantum AI researchers, outlines a significantly more efficient implementation of Shor's algorithm — a quantum method capable of breaking the elliptic curve cryptography that underpins Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The advance could dramatically reduce the resources needed to crack private keys, potentially bringing forward timelines for so-called "Q-day," when quantum computers can defeat modern encryption.
Google recently announced a 2029 target for the migration to post-quantum cryptography (PQC). Nic Carter, founding partner of Castle Island Ventures, compared the quantum threat to the Manhattan Project, the top-secret U.S. government program that led to the development of nuclear weapons.
"It's of similar stakes for sure," he said Tuesday on The Aubservastion podcast.
Google's findings have prompted divided reactions across the crypto sector, with some warning the threat is now incredibly urgent while others argue it remains manageable with careful upgrades.
'No longer a drill'
Some described the research as a turning point that accelerates the need for post-quantum protection.
Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at Dragonfly, said the paper suggests quantum computers capable of breaking widely used cryptographic schemes could arrive sooner than previously expected.
"This is wild," Qureshi wrote on X, pointing to estimates that a sufficiently powerful quantum system could break ECDSA keys within minutes using hundreds of thousands of physical qubits. "Post-quantum is no longer a drill."
Others went further, arguing the research undermines long-standing assumptions that quantum threats would be slow, visible, or limited in scope.
Alex Pruden, CEO and co-founder of Project Eleven, said the results challenge the idea that only dormant or poorly managed wallets are at risk. If keys can be cracked in minutes, he argued, attackers could theoretically intercept transactions before they are confirmed onchain.
"A 9-minute crack is faster than Bitcoin's average 10-minute block time," Pruden said in an email. "Every active transaction is a target."
Pruden also emphasized that, unlike centralized systems, Bitcoin can't quickly roll out emergency fixes. Any shift to quantum-resistant cryptography would require years of coordination among developers, miners, and users.
Project Eleven is collaborating with leading protocols and Layer 1 ecosystems on post-quantum readiness planning and technical work. Earlier this year, the startup raised a $20 million in Series A funding at a $120 million valuation.
Stefan Deiss, CEO of The Hashgraph Group, framed the findings as part of a broader acceleration in quantum capabilities. He noted that estimates for breaking standard encryption have fallen from billions of qubits to under a million in just over a decade.
"Google's decision to accelerate its post-quantum cryptography migration to 2029 should be a wake-up call," Deiss wrote in a statement, adding that hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of Bitcoin may sit in wallet formats potentially vulnerable to future quantum attacks.
He also warned of "harvest now, decrypt later" strategies, where adversaries collect encrypted data today in anticipation of more powerful quantum systems down the line.
A complex picture
Others took a more measured tone, emphasizing both the significance of the work and the uncertainty around its real-world implications.
Ethereum researcher Justin Drake described the publication as a "monumental" development for quantum computing and cryptography, particularly as multiple breakthroughs appear to be compounding improvements to Shor’s algorithm.
At the same time, Drake cautioned that the results will need further scrutiny and that timelines for practical attacks remain probabilistic rather than certain. He estimated there is now a small but meaningful chance a quantum computer could break elliptic curve keys by the early 2030s.
Drake also highlighted important technical nuances, including differences between quantum hardware architectures and the trade-offs between speed and qubit efficiency. While some systems could theoretically crack keys in minutes, others might take days, underscoring the complexity of translating theoretical advances into real-world capabilities.
In January, the Ethereum Foundation formed a post-quantum security team while Coinbase formed a quantum advisory board.
'No need to panic'
Not everybobdy in the industry sees the development as cause for alarm.
Binance founder Changpeng "CZ" Zhao argued that while quantum computing presents real challenges, they are ultimately solvable through upgrades to quantum-resistant cryptographic algorithms.
"At a high level, all crypto has to do is upgrade," Zhao wrote in a post on X. "So, no need to panic."
He did acknowledge that implementing such changes in decentralized networks would be far from straightforward. Transitioning to new standards could trigger debates over which algorithms to adopt, lead to network splits, and require users to move funds into new wallet formats.
"There will likely be many debates… resulting in some forks," Zhao said, adding that new code could introduce unforeseen bugs or security risks in the short term.
What remains unresolved is how quickly the technology will mature and whether decentralized networks can coordinate complex upgrades in time. While post-quantum cryptographic schemes already exist, deploying them at scale across global blockchain ecosystems could take years of testing, consensus-building, and implementation.
"The only thing that matters is how quickly blockchain developers recognize that they need to bake in cryptographic mutability into their networks," Castle Island's Carter wrote in a March 25 post on X. "This of course requires an entire reimagining of how these systems work. Today the crypto is hardcoded in. That will have to change."
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