比特币或将触及“绝对底部”？分析师称，比特币的最终调整即将到来

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As Bitcoin (BTC) retests a crucial level after breaking down of a bearish pattern, an analyst has suggested that the flagship crypto’s final correction before the next bull market could start in the coming days.

Start Of ‘Final Washout’ Is Days Away

In a Monday analysis, market observer Ali Martinez affirmed that Bitcoin’s final leg down before the next bull run could be around the corner based on the flagship crypto’s past cycle’s behavior.

The analyst explained that historically, the crossover between BTC’s 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) has marked the “‘absolute bottom’ of every major cycle since 2014.”

Over the past 12 years, whenever these two lines crossed on the three-day chart, it has consistently signaled the start of the “final washout” before the next bull market begins. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin had already declined by 50%-72% from its cycle peaks when the 50- and 200-SMAs crossed.

23-33 days after the crossover, the cryptocurrency continued its correction, retracing another 45%-52% before bottoming. In 2022, “another lower low formed 156 days later, completing the bear structure and opening the door for the next bull market.”

Now, Bitcoin has already seen a 52% correction from its October 2025 peak, while the SMAs crossed over on February 27. “As of today, we are exactly 30 days into this signal,” the analyst detailed, adding that “If history ‘rhymes,’ we are likely entering the Final Accumulation Window of this cycle within the next 3 to 6 days.”

Martinez noted that while the final leg down could be intimidating, history has shown that the crossover is the “Golden Opportunity” for long-term investors. Based on its 40%-50% “resets,” the analyst suggested two main accumulation zones: the $40,000 and $30,000 levels.

Structurally, this setup has historically aligned with the last major downside move before a generational macro bottom forms. (…) The countdown to the next vertical move has begun.

Bitcoin Bear Flag Breakdown Confirmed?

After closing the week around the $66,000 mark, Bitcoin has surged to the $67,000-$68,000 area to retest a crucial level from below. The flagship crypto has been trading between $62,000-$74,000 for nearly two months, developing a bearish formation during this period.

Notably, BTC has formed a bearish flag pattern on the daily timeframe, retesting the formation’s lower and upper boundaries multiple times since early February. Following last week’s correction, the cryptocurrency retraced over 10% from its recent highs to a four-week low of $65,000 on Sunday.

Amid this performance, Bitcoin lost the lower boundary of its bear flag formation, risking a second leg down toward lower levels. Analyst Crypto Jelle noted that the cryptocurrency is currently retesting the formation from below after today’s bounce, which could confirm that the pattern’s support has turned into resistance if BTC price is rejected.

In addition, the market watcher pointed out that the cryptocurrency’s bear market lows have historically formed below the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement levels, which could place BTC’s bottom below the $57,000 area. “Is this time different? Doubt it,” Jelle concluded.

source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:fb3cef771094b:0-bitcoin-absolute-bottom-next-analyst-says-btc-s-final-shakeout-is-near/