比特币跌破6.8万美元：是否将迎来为期半年的下跌趋势？?

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Bitcoin’s latest slide has revived one of the more uncomfortable questions hanging over the crypto market this year.

The investors are now seriously asking if this is just another ugly week or a deeper losing streak?

What seems clear is that the pressure has built for weeks.

Bitcoin slipped back below $68,000 late last week, then briefly fell to about $65,112 on March 30 before recovering above $67,000 as Asian trading picked up.

That rebound has not erased the larger concern. The market is now fixated on whether March will close weak enough to extend an already unusual run of monthly declines.

Market analysis published in late February had already flagged five straight red monthly candles through February, making the March close the real hinge point for the next leg of the story.

Bitcoin's monthly trend outweighs rebound

Bitcoin’s intraday swings are dramatic, but the bigger signal now is the monthly trend.

A brief rebound from the March 30 low does not change the fact that the world’s biggest cryptocurrency has spent much of the past several weeks trading under pressure.

The flagship cryptocurrency sank to $65,112 before bouncing back above $67,000, as renewed weakness late last week came as ETF outflows resumed and macro pressure intensified.

That is why talk of a “six-month bearish streak” should still be treated as a question, not a conclusion.

February was widely described in market commentary as the fifth straight losing month.

March, however, had not yet delivered a confirmed month-end close at the time of the latest selloff.

Iliya Kalchev of Nexo Dispatch captured the mood neatly, saying a week that began with cautious optimism ended on a more defensive footing as ETF outflows returned and macro pressure picked up.

Selloff driven by macro fear

Bitcoin is often marketed as a world apart from traditional finance.

In practice, it has lately been trading much more like a high-volatility risk asset.

The same forces hurting equities and denting investor confidence elsewhere are now feeding directly into crypto.

The investors are keeping a close eye on Middle East war anxiety, rising oil prices, a firmer dollar, and a broader retreat from speculative bets.

The worsening conflict in the Middle East pushed oil sharply higher, strengthened the dollar, and knocked major stock indexes lower.

That transmission mechanism is as simple as when war fears rise and oil jumps, inflation worries tend to follow.

When inflation worries rise, investors become less willing to hold volatile assets.

In Bitcoin, that caution is then amplified by crypto-specific accelerants such as ETF flow swings, derivatives positioning, and liquidation pressure.

The latest softness was tied to resumed ETF outflows and a risk-off macro mood ahead of a roughly $14 billion options expiry.

A sixth red month is possible

The bearish case is easy to see.

Technical commentary from FXStreet said the near-term tone remained fragile, with immediate support around the mid-$60,000 zone and a daily close below $65,000 potentially opening the door to a deeper retracement toward $60,000.

That leaves Bitcoin in an awkward position as its price is close enough to support to invite bargain-hunting, but not far enough from a breakdown to calm nerves.

Reuters quoted Cinthia Murphy of TMX VettaFi as saying Bitcoin may be nearing a floor, even if it remains a “wild ride” for investors.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/invezz:e58472138094b:0-bitcoin-crashes-below-68k-is-6-month-bearish-streak-coming/