投资者无处可逃，金融市场因伊朗冲突而举步维艰

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By Joseph Adinolfi

Treasury yields shot higher last week after a series of disappointing auctions. Stocks, bonds and gold are sold off, leaving investors with few ports in the storm.

Investors have had few places to hide as the Iran conflict has rattled global markets.

Four weeks into the Iran conflict, global financial markets are starting to show some serious signs of strain.

Worries about the inflationary impact of rising crude-oil prices, coupled with a series of disappointing U.S. debt auctions, pushed Treasury yields higher last week, while stocks, precious metals and bitcoin continued to struggle. This has left investors with few attractive options, apart from going to cash, to help their portfolios weather this latest storm.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y rose 4.9 basis points to 4.439% as of 3 p.m. Eastern on Friday. That's a jump of about 50 basis points in one month. Bond yields, which move inversely with prices, usually move in only small increments.

See: U.S. endures weakest Treasury auctions in over 3 years as anxiety around Iran war grows

The big yield moves come amid a backdrop that feels anything but usual. A gauge of expected volatility in the Treasury market recently shot up to its highest level since last April, shortly after President Donald Trump walked back many of his "liberation day" tariffs. At the time of that pivot, Trump said bond traders were starting to get "a little bit yippy."

The central worry is that oil prices will stay in triple-digit territory for a prolonged period.

For Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, the most active June futures contract (BRN00) (BRNM26) settled at $105.32 on Friday, up $3.43 or 3.4%. While that was only its highest settlement level since March 20, according to Dow Jones Market Data, the front-month May Brent futures contract (BRNK26) finished at $112.57 - the highest settlement for a front-month contract since July 2022.

Indeed, pressure has intensified across global markets in March as investors face the possibility that the Iran conflict and its supply-chain disruptions could drag on, leaving buyers around the world cut off from critical supplies of oil, natural gas, fertilizer and other essentials.

Dollar 'wrecking ball'

As prices of oil (CL00) (CL.1) and other commodities have spiked, the U.S. dollar has rallied as investors scramble to raise money to pay for them. Most commodities are priced in dollars.

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, a gauge of the buck's value against a basket of rivals, has gained 2.6% so far this month, according to FactSet data. That puts it on track for its biggest monthly advance since July.

It is unusual to see stocks, bonds and precious metals all falling at the same time. But there is a relatively simple explanation this time around, according to Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.

During an oil shock, investors need to sell whatever they can to raise money. "When everybody demands dollars, it tends to create chaos," LeBas told MarketWatch. "Energy-importing nations need dollars to compete for scarce and expensive energy resources," he said - adding that, in part, "they're selling assets to raise dollars to buy those resources."

'There's really been no place to hide'

Selling pressure in U.S. stocks accelerated into the close on Friday, with the S&P 500 SPX and other major indexes tallying a fifth straight week in the red. For the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 NDX, it is their longest losing streaks since May 2022.

Trump's announcement late Thursday of an extension to his ultimatum of strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure failed to calm investors' nerves.

Instead, headlines about Israel escalating its attacks and Yemen's Houthi rebels joining the conflict caused fears to escalate. The Cboe Volatility Index VIX, better known as the VIX or Wall Street's "fear gauge," finished the week above 30 - a level associated with panic. The gauge reflects investor expectations regarding how volatile the S&P 500 will be over the coming month or so, based on activity in the options market.

As implied volatility has surged, sophisticated investors like hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds that spent the last few years steadily gathering assets have started to sell them down, according to Charlie McElligott, a cross-asset strategist at Nomura.

"There's really been no place to hide this month," said George Cipolloni, a veteran portfolio manager, during an interview with MarketWatch. "You can't go to stocks, you can't go to bonds, even credit spreads have started to widen out.

"Some energy and chemicals companies' shares are doing well, but that doesn't make up the bulk of investors' portfolios," he added.

Gold (GC00) and silver (SI00) prices have cooled considerably over the past month, although both metals rallied on Friday. And bitcoin (BTCUSD) has moved lower recently, after rallying during the initial phase of the conflict, according to data from CoinDesk.

"The whole world got flipped on its head with this Iran situation," Cipolloni said. "If this energy crisis continues for any extended period, then you start to see some really bad outcomes."

Instead of the sudden shock investors felt last April during the tariff scare, traders lately have been struggling with the "slow realization that there is no clean TACO off-ramp," McElligott said - referring to Wall Street's "Trump always chickens out" acronym, which emerged a year ago after the tariff pivot.

In the past two weeks, the idea has sunk in that damage to global energy supplies won't quickly be reversed. That's largely due to Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure in the region.

Another fear for markets is that the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise interest rates into an energy supply shock, McElligott said. That could continue to weigh on asset prices for some time, as realized volatility in the equity market - that is, the actual size of daily swings in stocks - has started to pick up.

Information void

In an age where news travels at the speed of light, the Iran conflict has left investors in an uncomfortable cloud of uncertainty. Visibility into the situation on the ground is limited, keeping Wall Street in an "information void," according to Citi Securities' Scott Chronert.

"On the Iran conflict, it has been difficult to trade conflicting reports," Chronert said in written commentary shared with MarketWatch on Friday. This has resulted in some traders going for very quick opportunistic plays, but has left the market with "no real conviction."

Chelsea Ng and Michael DeStefano contributed.

-Joseph Adinolfi

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source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_SN20260329010201:0/