比特币价格可能即将触底，但仍有可能跌破6万美元

[kim]

Bitcoin may be moving closer to the kind of long-term support zone that has characterized major bottoms in past cycles, but one technical analyst believes the market has not reached that moment just yet.

An interesting technical analysis points to Bitcoin’s weekly moving averages as the clearest guide for where this decline could finally exhaust itself. That setup shows that the current price action may be narrowing to form a bottom, even though one more leg lower below $60,000 could still come first.

Bitcoin Has Already Entered A Late-Stage Correction

Bitcoin has been in an extended downtrend since October 2025, down by almost 50% from its all-time high above $126,000. As it stands, the Bitcoin price now hovering around $70,000, and a growing body of technical evidence shows the price action is trading at an accumulation zone, but the bottom may not yet be in.

According to a weekly chart analysis shared by @thescalpingpro on X, Bitcoin is converging on two long-term moving averages that have defined every major cycle bottom since 2018, and the final leg down could still take price below $60,000 before a floor is established.

Technical analysis shows that the 200-week moving average and the 300-week moving averages are the structural backbone of Bitcoin’s macro price history. Back in the 2018 bear market, Bitcoin found its floor precisely at the 200 WMA, which was the end of an 84% drawdown from the prior cycle peak. The March 2020 COVID crash, brief as it was, sent the Bitcoin price straight through the 200 WMA and into the 300 WMA before reversing sharply.

Then in 2022, during the FTX crash and the collapse of the crypto credit market, Bitcoin again bottomed in the vicinity of the 300 WMA. This completed a pattern that has now repeated across three different market cycles during three entirely different macroeconomic conditions.

Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @thescalpingpro On X

Where Does Bitcoin Need To Go?

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $69,820, down by 1.8% in the past 24 hours. However, Bitcoin is still trading above both moving averages but has not meaningfully tested either. The 200 WMA is currently sitting at $59,268, while the 300 WMA is positioned at $51,805. These two levels now define the high-probability accumulation range that could be identified as the bottom zone for the current correction.

The red support box drawn on the right side of the chart above shows exactly that possibility. The price may still dip into the upper end of the support band around the 200-week moving average or, in a more intense selloff, slide toward the 300-week moving average around $51,800.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:c646aeb51094b:0-the-bitcoin-price-bottom-is-close-but-there-is-still-a-crash-below-60-000-left/