比特币会跌破5万美元吗？最新比特币价格讨论与分析

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Bitcoin
BTCUSD
has been in consolidation between $62,000 and $75,000 over the 25 days of the US-Iran military conflict.

Source: CoinMarketCap

At press time, the flagship cryptocurrency was trading at $70,748, having gained 1.3% in the day following reported peace talks between the rival nations.

The positive price action is also attributed to a year-to-date reversal in Bitcoin ETF outflows, with $2.5 billion in inflows over the past month alone.

Why Bitcoin is consolidating despite heightened accumulation

A short squeeze could have triggered further buying pressure as investors sought to cover their losses (short-position liquidations rose to $48.2 million on the day).

Another reason is increased investor accumulation, as shown by blockchain intelligence firm Glassnode. 10,485 BTC has been offloaded from exchanges in the past week, bringing Bitcoin balances to an all-time low of 2.4 million. Long-term holders have expanded their BTC portfolios, adding about 33,000 BTC in the past month.

Still, prices remain below $75K due to insufficient buying pressure despite tight supply.

The BTC price debate

In the past, Bitcoin prices have plunged roughly 850 days after a halving. At around 700 days post the 2024 halving, it would appear we are almost due for a repeat in history.

Source: Crypto Rover

Crypto market intelligence division K33 Research supports this theory, identifying $60K as a likely upcoming bottom fueled by negative funding.

To add on to that, Bitcoin’s “electrical cost” (break-even mining price) has declined below $60K from $70K in Q4 2025. Historically, reduced miner profitability coincided with price floors. This has been the argument among analysts, including those at Kalshi prediction markets, in their forecasts of a low of $48K.

Source: Trading View
Gold permabull Peter Schiff warns of a financial crisis brought on by inflationary pressures from rising oil prices.
The more optimistic traders argue that BTC could be poised for an uptrend, which has historically coincided with a rise in gold prices.

Source: Trading View

Which direction the coin will take remains to be seen, with looming geopolitical tensions and Fed action as key catalysts for price movement.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/coinpedia:2ceaa20db094b:0-will-bitcoin-drop-below-50k-latest-btc-price-debate-analysis/