“圣经式”的行情：在美伊冲突的背景下，比特币的表现优于黄金

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Gold’s worst week in 43 years already happened. The question now is what Bitcoin does next.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $70,951, holding above the higher lows it has been printing consistently since the February crash. While gold sits at $4,381 – down over 12% in a week – and silver has fallen to $68.8, Bitcoin has not followed them lower.

That divergence is drawing attention from multiple analysts, and the read across them is notably consistent.

The Technical Setup

Michaël van de Poppe flagged the pattern on X. Bitcoin has been printing constant higher lows since early February, which he described as a strong sign of building momentum. His near-term target is $77,000 to $80,000, provided current levels hold.

The caveat he raised is worth noting: those higher lows create liquidity zones. If the market reaches them, forced selling could follow. Not fully out of the woods, but the structure is constructive.

What the BTC/GOLD Ratio Is Saying

While gold has been selling off, Bitcoin has been appreciating against it. Analysts are increasingly pointing to the BTC/GOLD ratio as the more instructive chart right now.

Gordon, founder of Crypto Crib, argued the rotation is already underway: Bitcoin is moving parabolic against gold, with capital leaving precious metals and heading into crypto. His view is that gold and silver face further downside over the coming weeks as Bitcoin works its way back toward $100,000.

CryptoAmsterdam condensed the sentiment even further: “The rotation from gold into Bitcoin will be biblical.”

Cathie Wood’s Historical Pattern

The most data-driven case comes from Cathie Wood, whose analysis shows the correlation between Bitcoin and gold since 2019 sits at just 0.14 – almost no relationship at all.

What her data does show, however, is a different pattern: gold tends to lead Bitcoin. In this case, the move Wood is referring to gold’s significant rally in 2025 – which she argues has set up Bitcoin’s next major leg, regardless of gold’s recent pullback.

When gold makes a major move, Bitcoin typically follows with a lag. She has specifically noted this dynamic in her recent commentary, pointing to large gold moves that preceded significant Bitcoin rallies, and drawing a circle around the current moment. Her conclusion: “We actually think it will.”

The Tokenized Gold Impact

Gold’s slide has wiped approximately $1 billion from the tokenized commodities market cap. XAUT and PAXG – the two dominant tokenized gold products – represent over 70% of the $6.68 billion tokenized commodities market. Both have declined alongside spot gold.

Despite this, total real-world assets on-chain stand at $26.5 billion, up 5% in the last 30 days. Capital is leaving tokenized gold but staying on-chain.

Van de Poppe’s technical structure is constructive, Wood’s historical pattern is in place, and the rotation thesis is gaining momentum. The setup is there. The timing is the only open question.

FAQs

Why is Bitcoin rising while gold is falling?
Bitcoin is holding higher lows as gold drops, signaling different market drivers. Capital may be rotating into crypto as investors seek higher growth.

Does gold’s price movement affect Bitcoin?
Historically, gold moves can lead Bitcoin with a lag. Strong gold rallies have often preceded major Bitcoin uptrends.

What are the next price targets for Bitcoin?
If Bitcoin holds its current support levels above the recent higher lows, analysts are targeting a near-term move toward the $77,000 to $80,000 range, with a potential long-term push back toward the $100,000 level.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/coinpedia:317d041d6094b:0-biblical-rotation-bitcoin-is-outperforming-gold-amid-the-us-iran-war/