专家解读比特币，剖析其方方面面，并指出：“这次的周期与以往不同。”

[라온]

A crypto analyst has broken down everything investors and traders need to know about the current Bitcoin (BTC) cycle. In his post, the pundit argued that the present cycle is different. He explained that the widely followed four-year cycle theory is fundamentally flawed, suggesting that a far more reliable framework exists for understanding where the market truly stands.

Market expert Sykodelic took to X on March 17, delivering a sharp critique of the four-year cycle theory. He argued that the widely cited model relies on nothing more than two historical data points and anchors itself purely in time rather than in any meaningful economic foundation. Whereas, he noted that the business cycle is supported by virtually every major market chart available, giving it substantially more analytical weight.

Why This Bitcoin Cycle Operates By Different Rules

Backing his thesis with a chart, Sykodelic laid out a sequence of market behavior he noted has played out consistently across cycles. According to him, Gold’s price rallies during periods of economic contraction and uncertainty, then peaks the moment the ISM Manufacturing Index returns to expansion territory.

Related Reading: Bitcoin To Rally 250% This Year? Crypto Founder’s Bullish Prediction Shows New ATHs

Once certainty returns to the macro environment, risk assets enter their genuine bull phase, and Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) begins its characteristic end-of-cycle decline. Sykodelic stated that each of these fundamental chart indicators lines up. And this is because the market cycle is strictly governed by the business and economic cycle, which is inherently linked to liquidity and economic performance.

The analyst further argued that the reason the current business cycle feels so unusual and goes largely unnoticed is that no one has managed to read it correctly. He noted that most people are too focused on the Bitcoin chart and the four-year cycle theory to pay close attention to the actual business cycle.

Sykodelic attributed this to human psychology, pointing out that people naturally find it difficult to believe events that have not yet occurred. He said they would rather defend events that have already taken place. The analyst argued that this instinct is why many are likely to be caught off guard in the present market cycle.

What The Charts Are Actually Saying

In his post, Sykodelic pointed to several observable conditions as direct evidence supporting his thesis. He shared the reason the current cycle is significantly weaker than previous ones and why most altcoins have failed to break higher despite gold experiencing a historic and unprecedented rally.

According to the analyst, all of these trends stem from a common root cause: a prolonged contraction in the business cycle. He noted that this contraction suppressed the conditions necessary for a typical risk-asset explosion. Concluding his analysis, Sykodelic expressed the belief that the market is not heading lower, noting that bearishly positioned traders are still operating under a seemingly faulty four-year cycle framework.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:427e136b5094b:0-pundit-shares-everything-to-understand-about-bitcoin-this-cycle-is-different/