比特币与美国选举周期：一段历久弥新的情缘，预示着40万美元是有可能实现的

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Every few years, a chart pattern resurfaces in the Bitcoin market that commands serious attention because it has repeated itself with near-mechanical consistency across every major US midterm election cycle since Bitcoin first started trading.

Bitcoin’s price history shows that these election-year corrections often happen near the end of major bull cycles before eventually giving way to another powerful expansion phase. Now, with the 2026 midterm cycle underway and Bitcoin already more than 50% off its all-time high, the coming months could include both a deeper correction and a much larger long-term rally.

Bitcoin’s History With Mid-Term Election Years

A recent chart analysis shared by crypto analyst Crypto Patel on the social media platform X examined how Bitcoin has behaved during past US midterm election years to create a recurring pattern of price movement. Particularly, Bitcoin posted steep losses in each of the three completed midterm election years on record.

The first example appeared in 2014, when Bitcoin dropped by about 86% from its previous all-time high during the election year period. A similar development occurred in 2018, when the Bitcoin price action recorded another deep bear market, with Bitcoin falling about 84% from its peak.

The pattern appeared again in 2022, when Bitcoin declined roughly 77% from its previous cycle high. Each of these corrections took place around the same stage of the four-year market cycle that coincided with US midterm elections. As shown in the chart below, each of the previous cycles had bottomed one or two months after the midterm elections.

Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @CryptoPatel On X

What The 2026 Cycle Could Mean For Bitcoin

Bitcoin reached its most recent peak in October 2025, and the price action has since moved into a notable correction phase. Price data shows Bitcoin currently trading around $73,600, placing it roughly 42% below that all-time high. The lowest point of the decline so far came in February, when Bitcoin briefly dropped to about $63,000, which makes a correction of about 52% from the peak.

If the historical election cycle pattern repeats in a similar fashion, then Bitcoin’s price could still see one final phase of downside before the beginning of the next long-term recovery phase.

The projection presented by analyst Crypto Patel places a potential bottom in the $35,000 to $40,000 range, possibly occurring between November 2026 and February 2027. The more consequential argument in Crypto Patel’s analysis is not the projected drawdown but what might follow the bottom.

A review of price action that followed previous US midterm election years shows that Bitcoin recorded an average rally of about 54% before a minor pullback. That temporary pullback was later followed by a stronger rally that carried the price to new highs ahead of the next election cycle. Based on this historical sequence, the next major move after the 2026 midterm elections could eventually carry the Bitcoin price above $400,000 in the long term.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:df4478b0c094b:0-bitcoin-and-us-election-cycles-an-age-long-romance-that-says-400-000-is-possible/