比特币价格是否接近底部？关键指标暗示市场下跌趋势可能结束——彭博社
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As Bitcoin (BTC) seeks to solidify its position around $71,000, the cryptocurrency faces a challenge from the $74,000 resistance level that has so far prevented a decisive breakout.
However, recent insights from Bloomberg indicate that a collection of indicators, historically associated with the conclusion of downward trends, suggest the current sell-off may be reaching its final phase.
Bitcoin Recovery In Sight?
Brett Munster of Blockforce Capital said that one of these indicators has already entered a range that has frequently preceded past lows. Meanwhile, two others are indicating figures between $54,000 and $58,000, which is lower than the current price range of between $65,000 and $73,000 that was set during the month.
Although a definitive price floor is not guaranteed, Munster asserts that “the majority of the drawdown appears to be behind us,” suggesting that a market turnaround could potentially materialize by mid-year.
One of the critical indicators currently highlighting Bitcoin’s potential for recovery is the MVRV Z-Score. This measure signals when Bitcoin is trading above or below its on-chain cost basis.
When this score dips below 0.4, it typically indicates that the cryptocurrency is undervalued. Presently, the score is around 0.38, indicating that Bitcoin may indeed be undervalued, although other metrics have not yet confirmed this trend.
Potential Upside Emerges
The realized price of Bitcoin—the average price at which it has last moved on-chain—currently hovers near $54,000, while the 200-week moving average (MA), which has historically marked important support levels, is positioned around $58,000.
Moreover, the pattern of diminishing peak-to-trough drawdowns suggests a potential bottom could lie between $45,000 and $55,000. Collectively, these indicators define what Munster terms “a high-probability accumulation zone” ranging from approximately $45,000 to $60,000.
Although pinpointing an exact market bottom is inherently uncertain and bear markets can last longer than anticipated, Munster believes that Bitcoin presently offers a more favorable risk-reward profile with greater upside potential.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com