比特币进入“最令人沮丧的阶段”，CryptoQuant 称： 展望未来

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Bitcoin (BTC) is currently navigating a trading range between $60,000 and $73,000, entering what analytics platform CryptoQuant describes as “the most frustrating phase in the cycle.”

According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor MorenoDV, Bitcoin finds itself in a period characterized by heightened uncertainty, with market signals indicating more hesitation than firm conviction.

Bear Market Signals

Three key on-chain metrics point to a psychologically challenging phase for market participants, specifically Apparent Demand, the CryptoQuant Bull Market Cycle Indicator, and the Long-Term Holder SOPR.

After the most recent sell-off, Apparent Demand initially showed signs of recovery, suggesting that opportunistic buyers were stepping in to capitalize on the recent price drop. However, this uptick was short-lived, quickly retreating to negative territory.

Moreno also emphasized the absence of persistent buying pressure in the Bitcoin market, which he believes shows that market players are still cautious and hesitant to aggressively accumulate BTC at current prices.

The CryptoQuant Bull Market Cycle Indicator, as seen in the chart below, further reinforces this sentiment, as it currently signals a phase typically associated with bear market consolidation.

Moreover, the analyst noted that the behavioral dynamics at play can influence the cost bases of various market cohorts. He asserts that as short-term holders realize losses or transition to longer-term holders, the realized prices of Bitcoin can decline.

Lastly, the Long-Term Holder SOPR metric is beginning to show that even seasoned investors are starting to realize losses, dropping below the crucial threshold of 1. Historically, this tends to arise in the later stages of bear markets when extended uncertainty erodes even the staunchest beliefs in the asset’s value.

Bitcoin Eyes $72,000–$73,000 Resistance Level

In the context of geopolitical events, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience, outperforming gold and traditional stocks during the recent US-Israeli attack on Iran.

Crypto stocks have also benefited, given their ability to be traded at any hour, unhindered by banking schedules. Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, told Fortune:

Crypto’s 24/7 structure is increasingly an edge for the asset class. When the Iran conflict escalated over the weekend, crypto-native markets were the only venue open for global risk trading, a structural advantage that traditional markets cannot replicate.

Additionally, Bitcoin has seen a positive uptick of about 4% following President Trump’s comments suggesting that the war may be winding down. Trump stated, “I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” adding that Iran has “nothing left in a military sense.”

While attempting to consolidate near $70,000 at the time of writing, Bitcoin is also seeking to break through its recent local high in the $72,000-$73,000 resistance zone, which was unsuccessfully tested last week.

Selby emphasized that a sustained close above this threshold with significant volume could shift the narrative from a mere short squeeze to a genuine momentum recovery.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:851283755094b:0-bitcoin-enters-most-frustrating-phase-cryptoquant-says-a-look-at-what-s-to-come/