比特币在对伊朗战争可能即将结束的希望推动下有所回升——市场动态

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0736 GMT - Bitcoin rises back above $70,000 as risk sentiment recovers after President Trump said the Iran war could end soon. Asked by reporters whether the conflict will be over this week at a press conference Monday, Trump said "No, but soon, I think so. Very soon." Meanwhile, finance ministers of Group of Seven economies said they are ready to take necessary actions to support energy supplies. Further supporting risk appetite, French President Emmanuel Macron said the country and its allies are planning to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin rises 1.9% to $70,327, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0727 GMT - The dollar falls as oil prices retreat after President Trump suggested the war with Iran could soon end. The pullback in oil prices also came as finance ministers of Group of Seven economies said they are ready to take necessary actions to support energy supplies. French President Emmanuel Macron also said the country and its allies are planning to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have rallied on the Middle East conflict, lifting the dollar as markets reduce expectations for U.S. interest-rate cuts while America is a net oil exporter. The dollar was also supported by its safe-haven status. The DXY dollar index falls 0.5% to 98.704 after reaching a three-month high of 99.695 Monday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0704 GMT - A supplementary budget of up to 15 trillion won, likely before the June 3 local elections, could boost South Korea's gross domestic product by 0.11-0.21 percentage point over four quarters, Citigroup's Jin-Wook Kim says. The extra spending could help fund fuel tax cuts and price caps on petroleum products as well as support low-income workers and the transportation industry, the analyst says. President Lee Jae-myung said at a cabinet meeting earlier that it is time to consider fiscal stimulus for businesses hit by surging oil prices amid the Iran war. Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol said an extra budget could be funded without new debt, thanks to stronger-than-expected tax revenue. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)

0654 GMT - Austria and Germany will conduct government bond auctions in the eurozone on Tuesday as market sentiment is set to improve after President Trump hinted at a near-term end to the bombings in Iran. "Following signs of market capitulation at the start of the week, Trump adds fuel to the recovery," Commerzbank's Christoph Rieger says in a note. That said, bond yields and spreads continue to trade highly correlated to oil and gas, which has triggered the sharp selloff Monday morning and subsequent recovery, the head of rates and credit research says. Austria will auction 1.725 billion euros in September 2032- and February 2036-dated bonds, while Germany will offer 5 billion euros in March 2028 Schatz. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0641 GMT - A global energy price shock from a potentially prolonged Middle East conflict will likely push up Singapore's inflation more than it will hurt its economic growth, says DBS senior economist Chua Han Teng in a report. Consumers and export-oriented firms have to face higher electricity, transport-fuel and shipping costs due to rising global energy prices and supply chain disruptions from the conflict. "The escalation in geopolitical tensions only heightens the risks of further disruptions that could dampen factory and trade growth," Chua says. DBS estimates that around 7% of Singapore's overall CPI basket would be affected by higher energy prices.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0636 GMT - With developed economies already facing sticky inflation, the path of inflation expectations will be key for bond yields, BNY's John Velis says in a note. "The length and intensity of the Middle East conflict will determine how high crude prices go and how long they stay elevated," he says. BNY understands why bonds haven't rallied during the conflict but notes that with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield now trading between 4.10% and 4.20%, "it remains below levels seen in early 2025 and in late January, when yields touched nearly 4.3%." The 10-year Treasury yield drops 2.1 basis points to 4.112%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0633 GMT - LPL Financial holds a neutral weight in core bonds, with a slight preference for mortgage-backed securities over investment-grade corporates, strategists Jeff Buchbinder and Adam Turnquist say in a note. LPL's strategic tactical asset allocation committee believes the risk-reward for core bond sectors, such as U.S. Treasurys, agency-, mortgage-backed securities and investment-grade corporates, is more attractive than the plus sector. The plus sector in fixed income refers to higher-yielding, non-traditional assets. "The Committee does not believe adding duration [interest rate sensitivity] at current levels is attractive and remains neutral relative to benchmarks," the strategists say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0626 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields decline in overnight trade, reversing a recent spike induced by higher oil prices, after President Trump signaled nearing end on the war with Iran, ING's Padhraic Garvey and Benjamin Schroeder say in a note. "Expect risk to get bought for a bit, but don't get too carried away with this," the senior rates strategists say. On Monday, Trump signaled in an interview with CBS News that the Iran war is "very complete, pretty much." The strategists expect short-dated inflation-linked bonds to get sold, volatility to calm and nominal bond yields to fall for a bit on a reversal trade. "But don't expect a dramatic structural rally in bonds." The 10-year Treasury yield falls 2.3 basis points to 4.110%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0615 GMT - U.S. Treasurys are already sounding some caution with the magnitude of yield rises last week, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management says in a note. This suggests possible risks of inflation, overheating growth and renewed pressure on debt and deficits, given the costs of a potentially prolonged conflict in the Middle East. Labor market anxiety remains high as well, it says. "There are economic casualties in war, and this one will be no exception," it says. Markets need to price that, Morgan Stanley WM says. In Asian trade, U.S. Treasury yields are declining as President Trump signaled Monday the war in Iran is "very complete," a sign that he may soon call an end to bombings. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0604 GMT - China's trade growth handily beat forecasts at the start of 2026 as global demand offsets the drag from U.S. tariffs, ING's Lynn Song says. Exports grew 21.8% over January-February, driven by chips, autos and ships. Encouragingly for those worried about Chinese price competition is that value growth for key exports outpaced volume, implying that goods are being sold at a higher price, Song writes. Another positive for China's trade partners is that imports surged too. Beijing has been focused on ramping up imports to promote more balanced trade, and while a supportive base effect was at play, the print shows improvement after years of flattish growth. Hard economic data next week will give a more complete economic picture but the trade numbers confirm that China's export engine continues to hum. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0422 GMT - Investors of Japanese equities, bonds and the yen are likely to return their focus to fundamentals from shock-driven trades once geopolitical risks and oil-price surges ease, State Street Investment Management strategist Masahiko Loo says in a note. The selloff across the asset classes followed the escalation of the Middle East conflict, reflecting Japan's limited energy buffer and the oil-price spike's hit on its trade balance, Loo says. Looking ahead, he expects Japanese equities to find support from resilient earnings, sustained wage growth and continuing governance reforms. Reduced uncertainty could also temper the recent bear steepening in Japanese government bonds, returning them to policy-driven trading. Meanwhile, downside pressure on the yen may ease as risk-off sentiment fades. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

0417 GMT - The conflict in Iran still cast a huge uncertainty over oil prices, Capital Economics says in a research note. In the most likely scenario, the conflict will be limited to a couple of weeks, as internal pressure within Iran or a quick military defeat leads to capitulation to the U.S. or Israel, CE says. In this case, oil prices are likely to fall sharply back to $65/bbl. That said, it is also possible that the conflict becomes longer and posts damage to Gulf energy infrastructure. Brent crude oil could rise to an average of $150/bbl over the next six months if energy infrastructure in Gulf and Iran are severely damaged. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 4.2% lower at $90.80/bbl; front-month Brent crude futures are 4.4% lower at $94.63/bbl. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260310001483:0/