根据PlanB更新的S2F模型，比特币在本轮周期内可能平均达到50万美元
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Popular crypto analyst known under the nickname PlanB, the creator of the Stock-to-Flow S2F model, has presented an updated Bitcoin outlook. According to it, the average price in the current 2024-2028 cycle may reach $500,000 per BTC.
On the attached chart it can be seen that despite current volatility and a price near $67,000 per Bitcoin, the first cryptocurrency is located in a zone that the analyst historically considers extremely favorable for buying.
Is this "ultimate buy opportunity" for Bitcoin?
His S2F model evaluates the scarcity of the asset by comparing its existing supply, stock, with the annual mining output, flow. After each halving, the inflow of new BTC is reduced by half, which, according to PlanB’s logic, inevitably pushes the price upward.
On the chart, the dotted S2F line makes a jump after 2024, pointing to a target range around half a million dollars.There are three key points in PlanB's recent outlook:
The first is historical accuracy. The author reminds readers about his past successes. In 2015 he began buying BTC at $400, and in 2019, when the price was below $4,000, his model predicted growth to $55,000. This target was later reached.
The second argument is current undervaluation. The blue and green dots on the chart — the RSI indicator — show that the market is not overheated yet. From the model’s perspective, the current $67,000 is only the beginning of the path toward the cycle’s average value.
Finally, the analyst stresses that there is no guarantee. The S2F model has often faced criticism for not accounting for demand and focusing only on supply.
In summary, PlanB sees the current situation as an ultimate buying opportunity. He believes Bitcoin is significantly undervalued, while investors should remember the high volatility. The road to $500,000 per BTC may include deep drawdowns, as happened in previous cycles.