购买比特币时，至少不要期望在三年内获得利润：数据表明

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Bitcoin (BTC) gets a bad name among some investors due to its steep double-digit drawdowns that punish late buyers, but data suggests the outcome can change with time.

Since 2017, investors who bought BTC near the market highs faced losses of about 40%–50% in the next two years, but data shows many of those positions turned profitable when held for longer than three years.

By contrast, entries near bear-market lows have historically produced triple-digit percentage returns over similar two to three-year periods. Onchain valuation metrics further help explain where these stronger accumulation zones tend to appear.

Bitcoin cycle data reveals how entry timing affects gains

Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-term performance appears volatile across the shorter two-year holding period. The cycle comparisons show a massive change when the positions extend to three years.

Investors who bought near the 2017 market peak faced a 48.6% loss after two years during the 2018 bear market. Extending the holding period to three years turned that position into a 108.7% gain.

A similar trajectory appeared in the next market cycle. Buyers entering near the 2021 high recorded losses of 43.5% after two years. By the third year, the same entry produced a 14.5% profit.

The entries near bear-market lows generated far larger gains. Buying close to the 2019 bottom produced returns of 871% after two years and 1,028% after three years.

The 2022 cycle low followed a comparable path. Buy positions initiated near that period generated roughly 465% returns after two years and about 429% after three years.

Together, the data highlighted a consistent pattern. Two-year windows expose investors to large drawdowns when entries occur near cycle highs. Three-year holding periods historically move most entries into positive territory, while bottom entries capture the strongest price expansion in both holding periods.

Related: These 4 Bitcoin charts say BTC price is forming a bottom

BTC realized price zones guide bottom entries

BTC’s onchain valuation metrics help identify where these bottom entries have historically occurred.

Bitcoin’s realized price measures the average acquisition price of coins based on their last onchain movement. Deeper drawdowns frequently extend toward the shifted realized price, which smooths the metric forward and highlights the stronger value zones.

These bands have identified long-term accumulation ranges since 2015. Bitcoin’s realized price currently sits near $55,000, while the shifted realized price is around $42,000.

Since 2015, Bitcoin’s realized price bands have repeatedly coincided with the cycle lows, with the price recoveries from these zones initiating multi-year rallies.

The behavior connects closely with the earlier return data. Investors who accumulated near bear-market lows typically entered while the price traded around or below these valuation bands.

Institutional research also highlighted the role of longer holding periods. Bitwise chief information officer Matt Hougan cited a study showing that adding Bitcoin to a traditional 60/40 portfolio increased cumulative and risk-adjusted returns in every three-year period studied. The win rate is 93% across two-year periods, with a roughly 5% allocation producing the strongest balance.

A separate Bitwise review of Bitcoin data from July 2010 through February 2026 showed the probability of loss falls to 0.7% when BTC is held for three years. The risk drops to 0.2% over five years and reaches zero across ten-year holding periods.

The shorter horizons carry more uncertainty. Day traders historically faced a 47.1% chance of losses, while the one-year holding periods still showed a 24.3% probability of being underwater.

Related: Bitcoin bears 'annihilated' as analysis sees $65K support test next
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:9e778d74c094b:0-when-buying-bitcoin-don-t-expect-profit-for-at-least-3-years-data/