比特币受益于科技板块的上涨。10万美元的价格是否会再次出现？——Barrons.com
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By Martin Baccardax
Bitcoin prices hit their highest levels since early February on Wednesday, extending gains over the past two months. Investors are looking to play catchup with technology stock gains while betting on a potentially more lucrative environment if Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh is confirmed.
Bitcoin prices have rallied more than 18% since March 30, effectively matching the 18% advance for the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite index and Magnificent Seven index but trailing more impressive gains for the PHLX Semiconductor benchmark.
Tech stocks are finding a boost from the progress, however slow, toward a permanent cease-fire with Iran. Talks hit a snag late Tuesday, prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to extend the temporary cease-fire that is in place. Nonetheless, the two nations continue to communicate heading into the final trading days of the month.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, has largely mirrored the tech sector's gains. It hit its highest levels since Feb. 3 during the overnight session, when it traded at $79,317. Gold prices, by contrast, have risen only 4.3% since March 30, and are down nearly 10% since the war began on Feb. 27. Bitcoin is down more than 35% from its early October peak, but investors are starting to bet on a longer-term recovery.
"Bitcoin is increasingly behaving as a hybrid asset, drawing inflows during periods of easing tensions and as a hedge during geopolitical uncertainty," said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation.
"Cryptos, and perhaps Bitcoin in particular, can be said to have had a 'good war' so far, with none of the volatility displayed by other risk assets, even if most US stock indices are currently trading at, or close to, all-time highs," he added. "This marked decline in crypto volatility has gone a long way in calming investor fears that Bitcoin is an investable asset."
Strategy shares have followed suit, surging more than 47% since March 30. The company has added more than $2.5 billion in Bitcoin over the past week, based on an updated filing Monday, marking its sbiggest acquisition since November 2024.
A potential further boost for digital currencies is tied to the likely appointment of Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh, who sat for confirmation hearings on Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee. Warsh, whom Trump nominated earlier this year, told the committee that cryptocurrencies are "already part of the fabric of our financial services industry." His financial disclosures revealed dozens of crypto holdings, including the decentralized trading platform dYdX and the venture capital firm Polychain.
"Warsh's appointment would represent a historic shift for the digital asset industry, as he would be the first Fed Chair with a deeply established personal and professional history in the digital asset ecosystem," said 21Shares Senior Crypto Research Strategist Matt Mena.
"For the markets, this means a Warsh-led Fed is likely to prioritize proactive rate cuts and a leaner balance sheet, creating a high-liquidity environment that has historically served as a powerful tailwind for both risk assets like Bitcoin," he said.
"Assuming an official end to the conflict in Iran comes soon, paired with Warsh's ascent could be the catalyst needed to send Bitcoin back to $100,000 in the first half of this year," he added.
Write to Martin Baccardax at martin.baccardax@barrons.com
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source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260422008322:0/