比特币逼近8万美元，反弹势头持续——市场动态

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1218 ET - Bitcoin is knocking on the door of returning to $80,000, trading up 4.4% to $79,098, according to data from LSEG. ETF inflows are seen helping support bitcoin prices. According to data from CoinGlass, bitcoin ETFs are on a 6-day winning streak with inflows, gaining $1.54 billion in that time. In addition, short positions are being liquidated as bitcoin continues to run up. According to CoinGlass, nearly $200 million worth of bitcoin short positions have been liquidated in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin remains down 11% year-to-date, according to CoinGlass data. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1107 ET - After a big drop in March, eurozone consumer confidence fell again in April, underlining that households could tighten their belts significantly if the conflict drags on, Capital Economics' Andrew Kenningham says in a note. The fall to minus 20.6 from minus 16.4 in March, the lowest since 2022, comes despite a rebound in equity markets and a decline in European natural gas prices in April, potentially reflecting worries about a rerun of the last energy shock, he says. Household consumption is difficult to forecast in the current circumstances, Kennningham says. "We have penciled in a couple of quarters of weak-but-positive growth in 2Q and 3Q based on a scenario in which energy prices do not rise much further from current levels," he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

1105 ET - Euro-denominated covered bonds have held up well despite the uncertainty caused by the Middle East conflict, Barclays' Cristina Costa says in a note. "The covered bond market is faring well, with spreads relatively stable and issuers able to bring deals to the market in different currencies," she says. New euro covered bonds supply is up 34% compared to the supply in same period a year ago, Costa says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1057 ET - The Hungarian forint should remain strong after Tisza secured a supermajority in recent elections, paving the way for improved Hungary-EU relations, Erste Group analysts say in a note. The new government is expected to unlock EU funding and commit to euro adoption. However, extensive appreciation of the forint, as in the case of the Slovak koruna prior to euro adoption in 2009, seems unlikely, they say. A huge part of the koruna's appreciation was backed by strong economic and productivity growth. "The lack of these factors, as well as much weaker economic momentum, limit the appreciation potential of the forint," the analysts say. The euro rises 0.9% to 364.08 forints, having reached a four-year low of 358.14 Monday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1054 ET - Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a hybrid asset amid the Iran war, Trade Nation's David Morrison says in a note after the cryptocurrency hit an 11-week high. Bitcoin is drawing inflows during periods of easing tensions but also acting as a hedge during geopolitical uncertainty, he says. President Trump on Tuesday announced an extension to the cease-fire with Iran. However, the WSJ reports Wednesday that three ships came under attack in the Strait of Hormuz. Still, bitcoin remains elevated, rising more than 4% to a high of $79,153, LSEG data show. "Technically, $80,000 is the next significant resistance level, and the daily MACD [moving average convergence divergence] suggests moderate upside momentum," Morrison says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0948 ET - At Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing, he discussed a preference for trimmed-mean and median inflation over core PCE measures. An analysis from BofA says even if food and energy shocks are trimmed out they could still raise the trimmed mean by preventing other shocks from being trimmed. To avoid the optics of cherry-picking, the note says Warsh would need to "stick with his preferred metrics even when they are outpacing the core." Warsh also argued yesterday for looking through one-off, supply-driven increases. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

0945 ET - While Kevin Warsh favors substantial regime changes at the Fed and to its communication strategy--any changes he would want to implement would be tempered by the need to forge a consensus among Fed officials, a note from Oxford Economics says. "The Fed chair can't make such changes unilaterally," Oxford says. "We expect the need for Warsh to build consensus would limit the extent of changes in policy or how the Fed communicates." Potential changes to the Fed's communication strategy could include reducing the number of Federal Open Market Committee meetings per year and not committing to press briefings after each FOMC meeting. Warsh also objects to the use of forward guidance as a policy tool along with the publication of economic forecasts, the note adds.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

0932 ET - This week's London tube strikes could compound the capital's weak consumer activity, Oxford Economics' Liam Sides says in a note. London tube strikes are causing severe delays and disruptions to commuters. The consumer market in London is 4% below pre-pandemic levels, Sides says. Some of the factors that have contributed to poor consumer activity are inflation concerns, high housing costs, harsh tax policies, and remote working, he says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0929 ET - President Trump's desire for a weaker dollar and lower interest rates are playing a part in holding back the currency, Societe Generale's Kit Juckes says in a note. "Recent robust U.S. data have not had any positive impact on the dollar." Trump has repeatedly called for rate cuts regardless of the growth and inflation outlook, he says. The dollar could fall if the market becomes more optimistic there will be no further escalation in the Iran war, with the euro potentially rising to $1.20 in coming weeks, he says. The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1732. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0923 ET - The dollar turns higher after Iran attacked three ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The news comes after President Trump said the U.S. would extend its cease-fire with Iran but maintain a U.S. blockade on Iranian ports. Senior Iranian adviser Mahdi Mohammadi said on X that Trump's cease-fire extension "means nothing." The dollar could see further volatility, Monex Europe analysts say in a note. Any sustained easing in tensions would encourage renewed selling of the dollar whereas any resumption of hostilities would likely trigger another round of safe haven demand, they say. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 98.472, having earlier traded lower. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0922 ET - If confirmed as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh will immediately face high expectations from the president who nominated him to deliver interest-rate cuts--perhaps challenging to justify with the Fed's targeted inflation rate running well above the 2% objective. In Senate testimony Tuesday, Warsh hinted at one way to make the case for cuts: He praised the "trimmed-mean" inflation metric. Trimmed-mean inflation takes the PCE inflation rate and strips out some of the product categories that rose or fell in price by the most in a given month. By excluding outliers, it aims to show a better picture of underlying inflation trends. Trimmed-mean inflation has been running at 2% annualized over the past 6 months, versus 3.4% for the traditional PCE price index. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)

0905 ET - Demand for Treasurys bounces back a little, pushing yields down, as President Trump extends the cease-fire with Iran amid stalled peace talks. U.S. stock futures rise, but so do crude oil futures, with Brent approaching $100 a barrel. The WSJ Dollar Index is steady. Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing goes without major surprises and markets keep betting on a prolonged hold on interest rates. The 10-year is at 4.274%, down from 4.290% yesterday. The two-year slips to 3.766% from 3.778%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260422007516:0/