原油期货价格暴跌，原因是停火协议引发了对供应恢复的希望——市场动态
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1502 ET - Oil futures post their sharpest single-day losses in six years as the U.S. and Iran reach a two-week cease-fire agreement that includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The price retreat is contained somewhat by concerns about the truce holding, the outcome of negotiations, and the logistical complications and time involved in restoring the passage of oil through the strait. The agreement triggered a noticeable shift in tone across markets, says Fawad Razaqzada of Forex.com. "If shipping flows pick up meaningfully, it should take some of the heat out of oil prices and, by extension, unwind some of the stagflation trades that dominated recently." WTI settles down 16% at $94.41 a barrel and Brent falls 13% to $94.75. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1458 ET - U.S. natural gas futures fall as the U.S.-Iran cease-fire agreement sends oil prices lower and temperature forecasts point to weak weather-driven demand for the next two weeks. The market is also watching tomorrow's weekly storage report, which is expected to show a larger-than-usual build in inventories, increasing the surplus above the five-year average. Analysts in a Wall Street Journal survey predict an injection of 44 Bcf, putting inventories at 1,909 Bcf at the start of the traditional April-October injection season. Nymex natural gas settles down 5.1% at $2.724/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1451 ET - Levi Strauss & Co. CEO Michelle Gass says the company's strategy is working, including its pivot to emphasize its head-to-toe offerings versus its prior focus on just jeans. The shift "dramatically expands our addressable market," Gass says during an appearance on CNBC. The company is also working to become a direct-to-consumer retailer, rather than selling mostly just through its wholesale channel, she says. "This year, for the first year ever, our sales will be more than half in direct to consumer," she says. "That is the momentum that is fueling this business." (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)
1415 ET - At their most recent meeting in March, Fed officials debated how to balance two separate economic risks from the war in Iran. On one side, "most participants raised the concern that a protracted conflict in the Middle East could lead to a further softening in labor market conditions, which could warrant additional rate cuts," according to the minutes of the meeting. But on the other side, "many participants pointed to the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected amid a persistent increase in oil prices, which could call for rate increases." Financial markets reflected this uncertainty as the war progressed last month, with bets shifting toward a neutral path where the Fed's next move could either be a hike or a cut. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)
1413 ET - At the Fed's March meeting, there was an increase in number of officials who wanted to warn markets that the central bank's next move could be a hike, instead of another cut. "Some participants judged that there was a strong case for a two-sided description of the Committee's future interest rate decisions in the postmeeting statement," according to the minutes of the meeting. The minutes of the Fed's previous meeting recorded that "several" participants held that view in January. In the Fed's jargon, a group of "some" officials is larger than a group of "several." (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)
1410 ET - When the Fed met during the third week of the Iran war, a group of officials was concerned the conflict was raising the risk that elevated inflation could be prolonged. The officials discussed how the war had pushed up energy prices and how a drawn-out war could mean more inflation showing up in other categories too, according to minutes released. "Partly as a result of these factors, the vast majority of participants noted that progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective could be slower than previously expected," according to the minutes. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)
1404 ET - Mexico's inflation likely accelerated in March amid a rise in volatile fresh food prices, while core inflation is seen easing slightly from the previous month. The consumer price index is expected to have risen 0.91% in March, pushing the 12-month inflation rate up to 4.64% from 4.02% in February, according to a WSJ survey of analysts. Core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, is seen up 0.39% in March and 4.46% versus a year before, compared with an annual rate of 4.50% in February. Statistics institute Inegi is scheduled to report March inflation on Thursday. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1250 ET - Treasury yields and the dollar stabilize off early lows as markets digest news of a cease-fire in Iran. President Trump posts on social media that some alleged negotiation points circulating in the media are false, without specifying which ones. Oil prices fall, but remain above pre-war levels, keeping alive inflation worries. Futures markets still mostly price a prolonged Fed hold, but odds of a cut creep up. The WSJ Dollar Index falls 0.7%. The 10-year yield is at 4.273% and the two-year at 3.767%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1134 ET - Digital credit markets will be the next growth engine for bitcoin prices, says Michael Saylor of Strategy. In an interview with analysts at Mizuho, Saylor says that he sees the next runup in bitcoin prices coming from "the formation of banking credit and digital credit on top of Bitcoin." While digital credit does exist in the form of lending from DeFi firms, institutional leverage hasn't made its way into using bitcoin as a vehicle for lending. Saylor says Strategy is interested in "stretching" BTC "from a nonyielding asset into a capital markets engine" that reinvests in itself. Bitcoin is up 2.7% to around $71,150. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1131 ET - Eurozone governments have more room to respond to the Middle East energy shock than they did following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, given improvements in public debt-to-GDP ratios, Oxford Economics economist Rory Fennessy says. Still, the fragility of some countries' budget positions, particularly in northern Europe, increases the possibility of difficult fiscal trade-offs, he says in a note. "Stronger fiscal support would mean upward pressure on public debt ratios in many eurozone countries, although this would come from lower starting points than in 2022 and should be manageable given that we still expect the shock to be temporary." With elections in France, Italy and Spain before the end of 2027, governments are more likely to go for temporary fiscal slippage over rigidly sticking to previous targets, he adds. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
1126 ET - Strategy head Michael Saylor thinks that the bottom for bitcoin prices is already in, analysts at Mizuho Securities say in a note. The analysts say that Saylor thinks bitcoin already bottomed out when it traded at around $60,000 in early February. "Saylor reiterated his long-held view that crypto bottoms are driven less by valuation frameworks and more by seller exhaustion," the analysts say, with Saylor characterizing remaining selling pressure on bitcoin as limited while demand is "structurally growing." Cryptocurrency is up across the board in a risk-on trading day for investors following an agreement for a two-week ceasefire in the conflict with Iran. Bitcoin is up 2.6% to $71,100, according to data from LSEG. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1124 ET - Treasury yields swing with geopolitical headlines, but will likely stay near current levels, PGIM's Robert Tipp says. He expects the 10-year benchmark to keep floating around 4.25%, granting investors solid returns over time. "It'd be very hard to knock long-term rates out of this kind of normal region," he says. U.S. corporations, in turn, have learned the importance of keep good credit ratings, meaning spreads are likely to remain tight. "I think it is going to be a credit-picker's market," he says, adding his current outlook isn't different from before the war in Iran began. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260408007229:0/