超过30%的比特币长期持有者目前处于亏损状态——市场动态
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0951 ET - Over 30% of the bitcoin held by long-term holders of the coin would lose money if it were sold today, says CEX.IO in a note. "The market is back in territory that, earlier this year, preceded some of its worst weeks," says the firm. The firm's own Bitcoin Impact Index, which measures the level of financial stress on holders of the cryptocurrency, puts market stress at a score of 57 out of 100--meaning "broad stress across multiple holder groups and institutional flows simultaneously." The share of unprofitable bitcoin is at its highest since 2023, says CEX.IO, and a large share of unprofitable coins preceded major price drops in previous years. BTC is up 0.2% to $66,741 this morning. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0939 ET - The decent GDP data for January may give the Bank of Canada more leeway to respond to broad-based price gains stemming from higher energy prices, says Bradley Saunders of Capital Economics. The economist says January's 0.1% gain in GDP from the previous month, alongside an estimated 0.2% increase in February, would put Canada's economy on track for 1Q growth of near 1.8% annualized. That's what the BOC is presently predicting. "This does not make rate hikes a certainty this year," Saunders says. "But any signs of price pressures broadening are now more likely to be met with policy tightening." Traders in the overnight-index swap market anticipate up to 3 quarter-point rate increases from the BOC this year. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)
0938 ET - A surprise month-over-month 0.1% rise in Canada's GDP likely means the country dodged the risk of a technical recession, or two straight quarters of economic contraction, says Michael Davenport, economist at Oxford Economics. Statistics Canada also reports that GDP likely rose 0.2% in February, which Davenport says points to modest 1Q growth after 1Q contraction. He adds that gains in the commodity sector, retail trade and construction helped offset weather-related weakness in the logistics component, and longer-than-usual retooling at auto-assembly plants. The outlook for GDP is unlikely to sway the Bank of Canada, which Oxford anticipates will stay on the sidelines for all of 2026. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)
0936 ET - Despite weakness in the labor market, it appears the Canadian economy was chugging along, posting modest growth ahead of the start of the war in Iran, says Tiago Figueiredo, an economist at Desjardins Group. GDP in Canada rose 0.1% in January from the previous month, Statistics Canada says, and that was above market expectations. The data agency adds that early estimates point to a 0.2% GDP jump in February. The rise in oil prices should support GDP in aggregate although with varying degrees of differences among regions, Figueiredo says. Traders, however, aren't reacting to the above-expectations GDP data due to events in the Middle East, he adds. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)
0928 ET - Reports that bitcoin treasury firm Nakamoto Inc. sold $20 million worth of bitcoin at a 40% loss is injecting fresh fear into the cryptocurrency market, with analysts warning that it may be the beginning of a wave of firms offloading their bitcoin holdings. "Cracks are beginning to show in the digital asset treasury market," says Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau in a note. "There is real contagion risk here." Puckrin speculates that the sentiment around bitcoin may push the coin down to below $60,000 in the coming weeks. Bitcoin has shed nearly 24% in the past 3 months, according to data from FactSet. It is up 0.4% to $66,835 this morning. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0858 ET - Oil futures are flitting between small gains and losses in early U.S. trade as the market weighs the implications of a WSJ report that President Trump would be willing to wind up military operations against Iran even before the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. In a Truth Social post, Trump also rails against the U.K. and others for not helping the U.S. against Iran, and tells them "Go get your own oil!" WTI is off 0.1% at $102.78 a barrel and most-active Brent is up 0.1% at $107.46. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0520 ET - Cryptocurrencies are lacking the strong institutional inflows needed for a sustained move higher, Saxo Bank analysts say in a note. Positioning in the options market remains defensive, they say. Investors continue to buy protection against the risk of falls in crypto-linked equities and exchange traded funds through put options in names such as Coinbase and iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. However, there is selective long-dated buying of call options, which expect an asset price to rise, in names like Strategy. ETF flows remain mixed, with bitcoin ETFs seeing modest inflows and ether ETFs seeing outflows. Bitcoin is steady at $66,627, LSEG data show. Ether climbs 0.7% to $2,036. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0508 ET - Unilever's potential transaction with McCormick for its food business isn't consistent with its previous justification for owning the business, RBC Capital Markets analysts write in a note. The deal, which might be announced today, doesn't fully align with Unilever's previous strategy to concentrate on its own Hellmann's and Knorr brands, the analysts say. The London-listed consumer giant would be left with a controlling 65% stake in the end company, the analysts say. Unilever shares are up 0.7% at 45.62 pounds. (aimee.look@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260331006079:0/