杰罗姆·鲍威尔的讲话是六个可能影响比特币价格的宏观因素之一，这些因素将在复活节前对比特币产生影响

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Bitcoin
BTCUSD
enters the final week of March trading near $67,400, facing a dense slate of US economic releases that could determine whether the pioneer crypto breaks out of its two-month consolidation or slides deeper into bearish territory.

The six reports span labor demand, consumer health, and Federal Reserve guidance. Each one feeds directly into rate-cut expectations that have become the primary macro driver for crypto markets in 2026.

Powell Sets the Tone as Bitcoin Consolidates

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks Monday at 10:30 a.m. ET in what markets have flagged as a high-impact event.

No specific topic has been pre-announced, but traders will parse every sentence for clues on whether the Fed sees room to cut rates later this year.

The backdrop is tense. The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% at its March 17-18 meeting, while its updated dot plot projected only one cut for 2026.

Powell acknowledged progress on inflation had been slower than hoped and flagged sticky services prices as a persistent concern.

Dovish language from Powell, particularly anything suggesting the labor market has cooled enough to justify earlier easing, could trigger a relief rally.

Hawkish commentary would likely strengthen the dollar and push Treasury yields higher, compressing risk appetite for crypto.

Bitcoin has traded between roughly $65,000 and $76,000 throughout March after a sharp retracement from its $126,000 all-time high set in late 2025.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.47 billion in inflows over seven consecutive days in early March, but outflows returned after the FOMC meeting.

The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 96% probability of no rate change at the April meeting, with rate-hike odds rising in tandem.

That positioning leaves Bitcoin highly sensitive to any shift in Fed rhetoric on Monday morning.

Tuesday’s Dual Release Tests Labor Demand and Consumer Confidence

Two reports land simultaneously at 10:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday.

JOLTS Job Openings
The February JOLTS Job Openings data will show whether labor demand continued its months-long decline. Consensus points to approximately 7 million openings, slightly above January’s 6.95 million reading.

JOLTS matters for Bitcoin because it is one of the Fed’s preferred gauges of labor-market tightness. Falling openings suggest employers are pulling back on hiring, which eases wage pressure and strengthens the case for rate cuts.

A reading below 7 million would reinforce the cooling trend that began in mid-2025 and could lift rate-cut bets, a historically supportive signal for BTC.

Consumer Confidence
The March Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board arrives alongside JOLTS. Forecasts sit near 88.0, down from 91.2 previously.

Consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of US GDP, and a sharp drop in confidence often signals areduced willingness to spend.

For crypto markets, a weaker-than-expected confidence print paired with soft JOLTS data would build a dovish narrative heading into Wednesday. That combination has previously supported risk assets by pulling forward rate-cut expectations.

Wednesday’s Rehearsal for the Jobs Report

Two releases on Wednesday will function as a preview of Friday’s main event.

ADP Nonfarm Employment report
The March ADP Nonfarm Employment report arrives at 8:15 a.m. ET, with consensus near 63,000 private-sector jobs added.

ADP data has diverged from official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) figures in recent months, but large surprises still move markets.

Retail Sales Report
At 8:30 a.m. ET, the delayed February retail sales report drops. Consensus expects a 0.4% month-over-month gain after January’s 0.2% decline.

This is the most direct read on consumer spending and will reveal whether households maintained purchasing power despite rising oil prices and softening sentiment.

A miss on both ADP and retail sales would heighten recession concerns and likely push Bitcoin toward $68,000-$70,000 on renewed rate-cut bets.

A beat on both would support the “resilient economy” narrative, potentially lifting Treasury yields and the dollar while pressuring BTC.

The dynamic cuts both ways for Bitcoin. Weak data supports easier monetary policy, which increases liquidity expectations. But if weakness tips into outright recession fear, the sell-off in risk assets could drag crypto down alongside equities.

The March Jobs Report Arrives on a Closed Market

Friday’s BLS Employment Situation report is the week’s marquee event. It arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday.

It will come amid Good Friday hype, creating an unusual setup where futures markets could react but cash equity trading may not resume until Monday.

The FactSet consensus calls for +45,000 nonfarm payrolls (NFP), a modest rebound from February’s -92,000 shock.

Unemployment is expected to tick up to 4.5% from 4.4%, while average hourly earnings are forecast at 0.3% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year.

February’s report was the weakest since December 2020. Healthcare lost 28,000 jobs due to ongoing strike activity, federal government payrolls fell by 10,000, and prior months were revised sharply lower. That print rattled both equities and crypto, with BTC falling toward $70,000 before stabilizing.

A rebound toward +50,000-60,000 would be interpreted as stabilization rather than recovery, given the pre-tariff monthly average was approximately 180,000 jobs. That outcome would likely keep rate expectations roughly unchanged and leave Bitcoin range-bound.

The tail risks are what matter. A negative print, another month of job losses, would fuel recession bets and could push BTC toward $62,000-$63,000 despite rate-cut tailwinds.

A strong beat above +100,000, particularly with rising wages, would revive “higher for longer” fears and pressure crypto alongside a stronger dollar.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/beincrypto:e47f7aafa094b:0-jerome-powell-speech-among-6-macros-to-hit-bitcoin-before-good-friday/