资深华尔街策略师警告称，私人信贷领域的压力可能引发比特币下一次重大上涨

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Key points:
The $3 trillion market is showing early cracks as JPMorgan marked down loans and Morgan Stanley limits redemptions.
Around 25% of business development company portfolios are tied to software companies, an industry now facing repricing pressures as AI compresses margins and intensifies competition.
Visser argues Bitcoin often falls during liquidity shocks but historically rallies sharply after policy intervention and renewed liquidity
Private credit is suddenly becoming one of the biggest macro risks in 2026, and veteran market strategist Jordi Visser believes the next big rally for Bitcoin (BTC) might come from it.

On Substack, Visser shared in his recent analysis named “When Buffett’s Tide Goes Out in Private Credit, Bitcoin Wins the Rescue” that while a crack in private credit wouldn't help Bitcoin right away, it could eventually create the macro conditions that have historically driven the cryptocurrency higher.

He said that in the short term, a liquidity shock would probably put pressure on Bitcoin and other liquid assets as investors try to get cash quickly. “In a real liquidity event, Bitcoin usually gets hit first along with everything else liquid,” Visser wrote.

Private Credit Market Under Stress

Over the past ten years, private credit has expanded significantly as banks withdrew from riskier lending following the global financial crisis. The estimated private credit market was worth about $3 trillion at the beginning of 2025 and could grow to roughly $5 trillion by 2029. However, the industry is starting to exhibit signs of stress, Visser wrote.

This week, JPMorgan marked down some loans to private-credit funds as concerns about software-sector exposure grew, and Morgan Stanley limited redemptions at one of its private-credit funds after investors tried to withdraw nearly 11% of the fund's outstanding shares.

According to Visser, the sector's concentration in technology companies increases the risks. About 25% of business development company (BDC) portfolios, according to Morgan Stanley's March estimate, are linked to software companies, an industry whose economics are currently being drastically altered by artificial intelligence.

Software firms were funded for many years under the presumption that steady cash flows and long-term growth would result from recurring revenue. But according to Visser, AI is upending those presumptions by reducing pricing power, intensifying competition, and compelling businesses to invest significantly in computer infrastructure.

“As AI forces a disruptive repricing of software, one of Bitcoin’s key macro identities comes under pressure,” he said.

Can Bitcoin Front-Run The Rescue?

Bitcoin has been trading more and more with technology stocks and software valuations. This means that a price change in those areas can affect the cryptocurrency. At the same time, Bitcoin is under pressure because it remains sensitive to changes in global liquidity.

Visser, on the other hand, says history shows Bitcoin tends to bounce back strongly when policymakers step in to stabilize markets. He says, “The first phase is not liberation. It is liquidation.”

During the panic over the pandemic in March 2020, Bitcoin dropped quickly in the first "dash for cash," losing more than 30% in just five days. But when governments and central banks launched large-scale stimulus programs, Bitcoin shot up by more than 900% from its lows by early 2021, argues Visser.

During the 2023 regional banking crisis, when Silicon Valley Bank went under, there was a similar pattern. There were huge withdrawals and emergency Federal Reserve programs. After the chaos, Bitcoin rose to its highest level in nine months and more than doubled by the end of the year.

Visser said, "Bitcoin does not front-run the panic." "It goes ahead of the rescue."

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $70,742, down over 2% in the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘neutral’ zone, accompanied by ‘low’ chatter levels over the past day.

A Policy Intervention Might Be On Its Way

The chances of policy intervention may be even higher today, argues Visser, because the U.S. financial system has significant leverage. The Congressional Budget Office says that the federal deficit will be $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026. The public's debt, on the other hand, is now about 101% of GDP. At the same time, the U.S. market capitalization is now about 219% of GDP, which Jordi Visser calls a "highly financialized economy."

In such a situation, policymakers don't like it when liquidity stays low for a long time. The Federal Reserve has already begun to slow the balance sheet runoff in 2025 and stopped the sale of securities in December, says Visser.

Visser says that these market conditions support Bitcoin's origin thesis. If private credit becomes the next source of stress, the situation could be similar to past crises seen. He predicts that, first, there would be liquidation, then policy intervention, and finally renewed liquidity, conditions that have historically led to large Bitcoin price upticks.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/stocktwits:e563f4dc9094b:0/