比特币价格预测
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Compared to the recent stock market, virtual currency markets like Bitcoin have exhibited significant volatility for a long time.
While the Korean and US stock markets have experienced a surge in activity due to strong corporate performance and macroeconomic expectations, Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to respond as quickly, frustrating investors.
"When will the Bitcoin price rise again?" "Is now a good time to buy?" These questions have led many investors to explore Bitcoin's outlook and investment opportunities.
In this article, I will explain Bitcoin's past history and future prospects.
Past Bitcoin Price Trends
Since its launch in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced several ups and downs, with periodic rallies and corrections. Notably, notable past bull markets have been as follows:
Source: Investing.com
2013: First rise in global awareness
2017: Exceeded $20,000
2021: Entered the $60,000 range
From 2024 to early 2025, the price fluctuated above and below $90,000 after a period of decline and correction.
According to various institutions and investors, Bitcoin tends to fluctuate depending on macroeconomic factors such as ETF inflows, policy movements, and inflation expectations.
Key Reasons for Bitcoin's Rise
- Increased ETF Inflows
The approval and activation of Bitcoin spot ETFs between 2023 and 2025 was a significant turning point.
This ETF served as a conduit for institutional investors and large funds, creating a foundation for price protection and additional inflows.
- Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Safe-Hold Asset Perception
Expectations of interest rate cuts, inflation fluctuations, and global policy risks often lead to an increase in preference for safe-haven assets.
Some analyses even highlight the tendency to view Bitcoin as "digital gold" and use it as an inflation hedge.
- Geopolitical Events and Demand for Risky Asset Diversification
As economic and political uncertainty increases, not only individual investors but also institutions may readjust their Bitcoin holdings relative to risky assets, leading to increased volatility.
Bitcoin Price Forecast
While various forecasts exist, the most likely scenario, based on the current timeframe (late 2025 to early 2026), is a "gentle upward trend."
In other words, rather than a short-term surge, the analysis predicts a gradual upward trend, with corrections and increases interspersed with gradual higher highs.
The inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs
is not a 'temporary event'
The Bitcoin spot ETFs approved between 2024 and 2025 are not a short-term boon; they are establishing themselves as a source of sustained capital inflows for pension funds, institutional investors, and long-term asset managers.
Notably, ETFs are intended for mid- to long-term portfolio inclusion rather than emotional trading by individual investors, so they face relatively less selling pressure even during sharp declines.
As a result, many believe Bitcoin is shifting towards a structure with a firmer downside and a more gradual upside.
The shift in the global interest rate environment is favorable for Bitcoin.
The fact that both the US and South Korea are entering the final stages of a high-interest rate cycle is also a key factor.
If interest rates continue to be cut or frozen, the attractiveness of cash and bonds will diminish, risk appetite will gradually recover, and interest in alternative assets like Bitcoin is likely to resurface.
In particular, Bitcoin has tended to strengthen its perception as a "digital scarce asset" whenever concerns about increased money supply, fiscal expansion, or inflation have surfaced.
Unlike past surges,
there are currently no significant signs of overheating.
Previous Bitcoin bull runs simultaneously featured excessive leverage, indiscriminate altcoin proliferation, and overheated retail investors.
However, the current market has a relatively low leverage ratio, significant institutional fund inflows, and trading volume is not as overheated as during past surges.
This suggests a relatively limited risk of a sharp decline, and while the pace of the increase may be slow, it is likely to be sustainable.
The Bitcoin halving effect
is "reflected with a lag"
In the past, Bitcoin halvings have also been followed by a 6-18 month delay before their full impact was fully reflected in the market, rather than an immediate surge.
The current period can be viewed as a period where the effects of the post-halving supply reduction are gradually being reflected in the market. If supply decreases while ETF and institutional demand remains, the Bitcoin price is bound to experience upward pressure, even if it doesn't surge.
So,
When will the Bitcoin price rise?
In conclusion, the most realistic scenario appears to be a gradual upward trend toward 2026, with corrections and sideways movements, rather than a short-term surge.
While the price can fluctuate significantly with a single piece of news, it's important to keep in mind that, from a medium- to long-term perspective, it's more akin to a "slowly rising market."
Strategic Points for Investors
In this situation, rather than investing a large sum all at once, a more rational approach might be to gradually buy, hold for the long term, and balance Bitcoin with altcoins.
While Bitcoin remains a highly volatile asset, it's important to remember that the current market is not experiencing the speculative surges of the past, but rather is undergoing a process of integration into the asset class.
In conclusion
While Bitcoin's price is highly volatile, many investors remain focused on its future growth potential and the role of digital assets.
While the outlook for 2026 presents multiple scenarios, factors such as ETF inflows, geopolitical risks, and economic uncertainty could act as positive momentum.
However, before investing, it's important to clearly define your investment style, time horizon, and risk tolerance and approach it accordingly.
Bitcoin remains an attractive asset, but understanding its value and approaching it with caution is the best strategy.