英格兰银行降息的可能性仍然高于加息的可能性——市场观点
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0818 ET - Despite the expectations of financial markets, the chances of a rate hike by the Bank of England remain low, James Smith at ING says in a note. Markets are being influenced by memories of the inflation spike following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But the U.K. economic backdrop is weaker than in 2022, fiscal policy is now a drag rather than a support, and businesses appear less able to pass on cost increases, Smith says. Inflation could spike to 3.5% by late summer, even before wider knock-on effects take hold. Still, cuts remain more likely than hikes overall, the analyst says, noting that the BOE could still cut in April if energy prices come down. "But if disruption persists and inflation approaches 4%, the bank may keep rates unchanged for longer," he says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)
0816 ET - January's eurozone industrial data shows that recent optimism among manufacturers hasn't been justified, ING's Bert Colijn says in a note. Production dropped 1.5% in January after falling 0.6% in December. "While production had been elevated compared to 2024 levels for much of last year, the January level...is now the lowest since December 2024," he says. There had been expectation that increased public investment in defense and infrastructure would boost manufacturing output. But the risk is another prolonged surge in oil-and-gas costs will shatter hopes of a recovery in energy-intensive industries, which have struggled since the previous shock in 2021-22, Colijn says. "Just as optimism had returned to manufacturing, geopolitics is clearly putting downside risk back on the table." (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0802 ET - Japanese authorities could allow the yen to weaken below its supposed pain threshold against the dollar as any currency interventions are unlikely to have lasting success, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says in a note. "The Ministry of Finance may well allow a break through the [dollar-yen] 160-level in order to gauge price action above that key level." The problem is that the yen's recent falls are driven by a stronger dollar, he says. It's also difficult to argue there has been disorderly moves with the dollar just 2% higher versus the yen since the conflict started, he says. The dollar is steady at 159.29 yen after earlier reaching a 20-month high of 159.68, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0801 ET - Bitcoin rises to a one-week high as improved sentiment over U.S. cryptocurrency regulation offsets uncertainty over the Iran war, Saxo Bank analysts say in a note. "Digital assets are showing relative resilience despite weaker equity markets and persistent geopolitical risk." The Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission earlier this week signaled closer co-operation on a joint regulatory framework for digital assets. Investors hope this development could provide clearer rules for the industry and encourage broader institutional participation, the analysts say. Despite some stabilization in crypto prices, the assets remain sensitive to macroeconomic developments including energy prices, inflation expectations and shifts in risk sentiment, they say. Bitcoin rises nearly 3% to $72,575, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0759 ET - Sterling could fall further versus the dollar but outperform the euro if the Iran war intensifies, TD Securities analysts say in a note. "In case of further escalation and more permanent closures to the Strait of Hormuz, we will see a broad-based dollar rally which can send sterling back below $1.30." The dollar is supported by its safe-haven status and America's position as a net oil exporter. Sterling should outperform the euro given the delayed pass-through of inflation and lower sensitivity to oil imports and the China growth impact, they say. Sterling falls to a three-month low of $1.3242, LSEG data show. The euro rises 0.2% to 0.8647 pounds, having reached a five-week low of 0.8616 Thursday.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0758 ET - The Middle East conflict has changed the backdrop for the Riksbank as energy prices could quickly become problematic, Nordea's Torbjorn Isaksson writes. The recovery in the Swedish economy risks losing momentum, and the uncertainty is likely to lead the Riksbank to adopt a wait-and-see approach at its meeting next week, he says. "We expect the policy rate to be left unchanged at 1.75%, and the rate path to remain intact from the December report, implying an unchanged policy rate throughout most of 2026." Nordea had seen monetary policy clearly skewed towards cuts ahead, but due to the Middle East developments it now thinks cuts are off the table. An important signal will be the Riksbank's high readiness to tighten policy should inflation accelerate rapidly. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)
0756 ET - The euro could fall to as low as $1.10 from $1.1456 currently if the Iran war escalates and leads to more permanent closures to the Strait of Hormuz, TD Securities strategists say in a note. In that case, the European Central Bank would have to simultaneously address weaker growth and higher inflation stemming from higher energy prices due to the eurozone's reliance on energy imports, they say. In contrast, the Federal Reserve could prioritize the inflation shock given America's position as a net oil exporter. "This will allow growth and rate differentials to move in favor of the U.S. and bring about a stronger dollar rally." The euro earlier reached a seven-month low of $1.1431, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0747 ET - The Middle East conflict compounds the current weakness in the U.K. economy, Oxford Economic's Andrew Goodwin says in a note. The conflict has led to a surge in energy prices which is likely to push up U.K. inflation, Goodwin says. CPI inflation could rise as high as 3.8% in the fourth quarter with oil prices averaging $100 per barrel, or to 5.5% in a "worst-case scenario" of oil prices averaging $140 along with a bigger spike in gas prices. The combination of high inflation and restrictive interest rates are likely to weigh on consumer finances and lead to weak growth, he says. "In a worst-case scenario, the hit would be greater and the U.K. would likely suffer a mild recession." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0740 ET - The cost of insuring euro credit against default climbs due to concerns about high oil prices amid uncertainty about when the Middle East war will end. "Financial markets showed signs of frustration that the Iran conflict continues to rage on," AJ Bell's Dan Coatsworth says in a note. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps rises 5 basis points to 302bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. The iTraxx Europe Main index of euro investment-grade CDS climbs 1bp to 64bps. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0637 ET - The U.K.'s economic growth could worsen as consumers reduce their spending due to uncertainty surrounding the Middle East war and its impact, AJ Bell's Danni Hewson says in a note. Worries about the year ahead could lead to weak consumer spending and hurt U.K. businesses, Hewson says. U.K. monthly GDP growth was flat in January, weaker than the consensus forecast of 0.2% growth by economists in a WSJ survey. Annual GDP growth stood at 0.8%, below the consensus forecast of 0.9% growth. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0634 ET - The South African rand could fall further after reaching a three-month low against the dollar earlier, driven by the Iran war, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. Investors were betting on the rand rising before the war, helped by surging gold and platinum prices and South Africa's low inflation encouraging inflows into its local-currency bond market, he says. Since the Iran war, rising energy prices are expected to lift inflation while higher volatility and lower precious-metal prices weigh on the rand. The dollar rises 0.2% to 16.8687 rand, having reached a high of 16.9409 earlier. ING sees a risk of it reaching 17.75 next week if energy prices rise further and global equities extend falls. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0630 ET - The Japanese yen's weakness during the Iran conflict is unlikely to signal the end of its status as a safe-haven currency, Capital Economics says in a note. Head of Asia-Pacific markets Thomas Mathews says the yen's appeal has likely been undermined by Japan's relatively high exposure to energy price shocks compared with other G-10 economies. He also notes that shifts in relative government bond yields have made yen-denominated assets less attractive, as expectations of delayed rate cuts in the U.S. and the U.K. push up yields there while Japanese bond yields remain largely unchanged. However, Mathews says these factors could still work in the yen's favor during global growth scares, while Japan's large net international asset position should help it retain its safe-haven status. (jason.chau@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260313003708:0/