根据历史数据，比特币在历次美国中期选举后，平均上涨54%。——币安
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Despite trading more than 40% below its all-time high, with $70,000 serving as a short-term support level, Bitcoin (BTC) may be poised for a repeat pattern that could lead to a 54% increase following this year’s US midterm elections.
New research from cryptocurrency exchange Binance suggests that, historically, the aftermath of midterm elections has been positive for both the Bitcoin price and the S&P 500.
Will Bitcoin Follow Historical Patterns?
The research shows that since 1939, the S&P 500 has reported no negative returns in the 12 months following midterm elections, averaging gains of 19%. In the same periods, Bitcoin has experienced an average rally of 54% across all three previously recorded midterm years.
Binance’s analysis further reveals that midterm election years often lead to political volatility, resulting in average peak-to-trough drawdowns of about 16% for the S&P 500—marking them as the weakest years in the four-year presidential cycle.
Tracking Bitcoin from 2014 onward, the research indicates that the market’s leading cryptocurrency has mirrored these market dynamics, with an average decline of 56% during midterm years.
The research emphasizes what they call “The Post-Election Opportunity,” as once election results are settled and uncertainties are cleared, markets historically tend to rally significantly.
The exchange asserts that the year following midterm elections has been shown to be particularly strong for market returns, thus setting the stage for potential Bitcoin gains as well.
If Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory, it could make a strong case for a rebound. However, potentially not toward new record highs. The cryptocurrency has fallen by an average of 70% from its previous all-time highs during previous bear market cycles.
With Bitcoin’s bull market peak at $126,000, a potential decline to $37,800 could precede a 54% surge pointed by Binance, potentially returning its price to nearly $58,000. However, some analysts are pointing out that the market bottom may already have been reached.
Is The End Of The Bear Market Near?
NewsBTC reported Wednesday that CryptoQuant analysts suggest that Bitcoin might be in the final stages of its bear market, especially after it dropped to $59,900 on February 6.
Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating between $65,000 and $70,000, eyeing the key resistance level at $73,000. This phase may indicate a final accumulation stage of the bear cycle, which is often succeeded by substantial recoveries, albeit not in a straight path.
With this pattern in mind, if Bitcoin maintains its current trading levels, the post-midterm elections in the US could propel the cryptocurrency back toward $107,000 for the first time since November 2025.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com