比特币下跌，未能维持在7万美元以上的涨势——市场动态
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0800 GMT - Bitcoin falls back below the key $70,000 level as uncertainty over the Iran war keeps investors cautious over risky assets. The cryptocurrency briefly rose back above $70,000 Tuesday after President Trump said the war could end soon. Other positive headlines included Energy Secretary Chris Wright saying in a now-deleted social-media post that the U.S. escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz while the WSJ reported that the International Energy Agency was planning the largest ever stockpile release. "However, reports that Iran was laying mines along the Strait of Hormuz dented sentiment and pushed oil prices higher," Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar says in a note. Bitcoin falls 0.8% to $69,660, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0747 GMT - The dollar trades steady as uncertainty over the Iran war remains elevated and as investors await U.S. inflation data later. The dollar fell earlier as oil prices dropped after Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a social-media post that the U.S. escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. However, shortly afterwards the post was deleted and U.S. officials said the military isn't currently escorting commercial ships through the important energy chokepoint. The inflation data are due at 1230 GMT. "This is a key print, as the recent oil shock has pushed back market expectations for the next Federal Reserve rate cut," Deutsche Bank analysts say in a note. The DXY dollar index trades flat at 98.825. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0745 GMT - Oil prices will continue to be the biggest the market driver, overshadowing the coming U.S. February inflation figures, Pepperstone analyst Michael Brown says in a note. Market participants have found a sense of comfort after President Trump said that the conflict will end very soon, Brown says. Still, markets will continue to trade from headline to headline while watching for any signs of de-escalation, he notes. While the U.S. inflation print is usually a key event to watch, the report later today isn't likely to move the needle much, either from a market perspective, or in terms of the Fed policy outlook, he says. Market participants "care little about incoming economic data, given the fluid geopolitical backdrop," he adds. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0725 GMT - The Mideast conflict is unlikely to significantly impact China's growth, as the economy is less dependent on oil and gas than many other major economies, Capital Economics says in a note. China's rapid rollout of EVs and renewable power has displaced some demand for oil and gas, while its energy mix remains dominated by coal, says Julian Evans-Pritchard, CE's head of China economics. Beijing's large crude oil reserves can also be used to limit the pass-through of higher prices to domestic consumers. China's natural gas import costs are also less sensitive to spot prices, as most supply comes via pipelines from neighboring countries. With domestic manufacturers likely to face less increase in energy prices than manufacturers elsewhere, Chinese exports could become even more competitive, CE reckons. (jason.chau@wsj.com)
0701 GMT - Market sentiment continues to stabilize across fixed income segments but still doesn't constitute an all-clear, Commerzbank's Erik Liem writes in a note. "Beyond the consolidation in outright yields, higher equities and tighter eurozone government bond spreads, this is also echoed in other market segments," the rates strategist says. The ultra-long segment of the curve is steepening amid lower implied volatility and lower front-end yields while curve dislocations have abated, he says. Government bond supply in the eurozone will come from Germany and Portugal on Wednesday. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0651 GMT - Sweden's planned syndicated launch of a new 10-year government bond is the day's highlight for Scandinavian fixed income markets. The country's national debt office plans to issue 20 billion Swedish kronor in a new February 2037-dated bond. Assuming a 2.75% coupon on the new bond, an around 2 basis points spread over Sweden's October 2036 bond "gives a smooth forward curve," according to Danske Bank's fair-value assessment. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0645 GMT - The threat of stagflation is much lower this time around than in 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, given the underlying strength of the global economy, MFS Investment Management's Benoit Anne says in a note. There are fears of a severe inflation shock following the major surge in oil prices, "but we currently do not see the same risk of inflation persistence," the head of MFS's market insights group says. Reassuringly, the inflation markets seem to agree, he says. The U.S. one-year inflation breakeven appears to have broken to the upside, while the longer tenors, including the five- and 10-year, haven't moved that much, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0643 GMT - India's central bank faces an "impossible trilemma" between anchoring inflation, stabilizing the currency, and supporting economic growth, say economists at Elara Securities (India) in a report. The Reserve Bank of India is likely to maintain a hawkish stance if oil prices remain elevated at around $100/bbl to prevent a sharp rupee depreciation, and to buildup defense against a possible "imported inflation" shock, they write. The RBI will likely prioritize liquidity management through bond purchases to limit any shocks to growth and anchor benchmark yield, they add. "This proactive intervention is crucial, in our view, if a prolonged conflict exerts upward pressure on sovereign risk premium," they say. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)
0626 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields rise in overnight trade, albeit only modestly as oil prices remain the key driver. Investors face fresh uncertainty in oil markets after Iran placed mines in the Strait of Hormuz, while the International Energy Agency has proposed the largest release of oil reserves in history to lower crude prices. With oil-price developments in focus, U.S. CPI data for February might get less attention than usual. Another event for investors to watch is the U.S. Treasury's $39 billion auction of 10-year notes. The two-year Treasury yield edges up 0.7 basis point to 3.573%, the 10-year yield is up 0.8 basis point at 4.143% and the 30-year yield rises 1.1 basis points to 4.782%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0612 GMT - LPL Financial, which currently has neutral duration relative to benchmarks, is waiting for more attractive entry points for U.S. Treasury yields. "We would look for the 10-year Treasury yield to reach the 4.50%-4.75% range before reconsidering duration positioning," chief fixed income strategist Lawrence Gillum says in a note. Continuing uncertainty around the ultimate impact of artificial intelligence on corporate credit markets continues to support a broadly cautious stance, he says. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield last trades at 4.143%, up 0.8 basis point, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0610 GMT - The U.S. Treasury market is stuck between artificial intelligence-driven job displacement and the ongoing conflict in Iran, LPL Financial's Lawrence Gillum says in a note. Earlier in the year, Treasury yields fell sharply as investors weighed the possibility that accelerated AI adoption could slow economic growth by displacing labor, the chief fixed income strategist says. Since the start of the Iran conflict, however, Treasury yields have reversed sharply as investors began fearing the impact of rising energy prices on inflation, he says. "The AI safety trade was overwhelmed by the inflation trade almost overnight and has since reversed most of the earlier fall in yields." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0411 GMT - The Thai baht is the most vulnerable currency to the current energy price shock, BNP Paribas analysts write in a report. Thailand holds low oil reserves and is one of the largest net importers of energy, particularly from the Middle East. The Southeast Asian country's fiscal balance is likely to weaken due to retail fuel price caps, suspended fuel exports and potentially weaker tourism receipts. This comes at a time when Thailand's public debt levels are already high, BNP Paribas notes. The baht could also underperform partly due to the currency's sensitivity to risk-off market dynamics.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260311001904:0/